The Coronavirus and your money. After an unprecedented 10% rally, which started in October of 2019, the stock market is finally hitting a rough patch. The quick spread of the coronavirus in China and around the world made investors nervous about the future of the global economy. The 2% pullback on January 31 wiped out most of January gains. Despite the quick recovery in early February, the outbreak of the virus in South Korea, Japan, Iran, and Italy triggered a massive sell-off on Monday, February 24. The major US indices dropped 3.5% in one day, with DOW falling over 1,000 points.
Investors seeking safety pushed the price of Gold to $1,650. The 10-year treasury rate fell to 1.34, and the 30-year treasury bonds now pay 1.85%. The price of crude oil fell to $51 per share.
About the virus
The coronavirus, called COVID-19, started in the city of Wuhan in the Chinese province of Hubei. Until now, there were over 80,000 reported cases in China and around the world and nearly 2,700 fatalities. The virus spread came on the heels of Chinese Lunar Year celebrations, which is a primary holiday and travel period. It is estimated that Chinese travelers make 3 billion trips in the 40 days surrounding this major Chinese holiday. Currently, more than 60 million people have been locked down in China alone.
The governments around the world have limited or directly banned travelers coming from China. Many foreign businesses like Apple, IKEA, Disney, and Starbucks have shut down stores and theme parks.
The impact on Wuhan
Wuhan is a major transportation and industrial hub in China. More than 300 of the world’s top companies have a presence in Wuhan, including Microsoft, German-based software company SAP, and carmakers General Motors, Honda, and Groupe PSA.
The total value of trade imports and exports in Wuhan reached $35.3 billion in 2019, a record high that was 13.7% above the previous year.
The Bear case
A continued outbreak of the coronavirus can shave off between 0.5% to 1% of the already slowing Chinese GDP. As the second-biggest economy, China is one of the largest importers of commodities and materials.
An extended lockdown will hurt sales of all foreign companies doing business in China. It can trickle down to the already fragile economies of the EU, Japan, and other export-oriented countries.
The lockdown in China will hurt the global supply chain and the limit the manufacturing abilities of companies making their products in China.
The virus outbreak in Italy, South Korea, and Iran creates a lot of uncertainty and puts pressure on local authorities to control the further spread out.
The previous virus threats (Ebola, SARS, Zika) hurt travel-related businesses and took several months before the markets fully recovered.
The Bull case
The US economy remains strong. The unemployment rate is at record low levels of 3.5%. Low-interest rates and low gasoline prices will support further growth in consumer spending and housing sales.
While not completely sheltered, the US economy is less dependent on exports to China.
The Fed has more room to cut rates if the US economy experiences a slowdown as a result of the virus.
The Chinese government is introducing a new monetary and fiscal stimulus package to support the economy.
Slowing GDP will make the Chinese government more willing to sign the Phase 2 trade deal with the US.
Pharma companies (reportedly Gilead and Moderna) are pursuing a virus vaccine.
Spring is coming. The warm weather could limit the impact of the virus around the world.
Your investments
Keep the course. Have a long-term view and focus on achieving your financial goals.
Market volatility is a normal part of the investment cycle.
S&P 500 index pays a 1.8% dividend versus a 1.3% yield for the 10-year treasury. A long-term income investors may find it compelling to invest in dividend-paying stocks over bonds.
A significant stock pullback will be an opportunity to buy high-quality US companies.
Everything you need to know about surviving the next market downturn: we are in the longest bull market in US history. After more than a decade of record-high stock returns, many investors are wondering if there is another market downturn on the horizon. With so many people saving for retirement in 401k plans and various retirement accounts, it’s normal if you are nervous. But if you are a long-term investor, you know these market downturns are inevitable. Market downturns are stressful but a regular feature of the economic cycle.
What is the market downturn?
A market downturn is also known as a bear market or a market correction. During a market downturn, the stock market will experience a sharp decline in value. Often, market downturns are caused by fears of recession, political uncertainty, or bad macroeconomic data.
How low can the market go down?
The largest-ever percentage drop by the S&P 500 index occurred on October 19, 1987 (known as The Black Monday), when the S&P 500 dropped by -20.47%. The next biggest selloff happened on October 15, 2008, when the S&P 500 lost –9.03%. In both cases, the stock market continued to be volatile for several months before reaching a bottom. Every time, the end of the market downturn was the start of a new bull market. Both times, the stock market recovered and reached historic highs in a few years.
What can you do when the next market downturn happens?
The first instinct you may have when the market drops is to sell your investments. In reality, this may not always be the right move. Selling your stocks during market selloff may limit your losses, may lock in your gains but also may lead to missed long-term opportunities. Emotional decisions do not bring a rational outcome.
Dealing with declining stock values and market volatility can be tough. The truth is nobody likes to lose money. The volatile markets can be treacherous for seasoned and inexperienced investors alike. To be a successful investor, you must remain focused on the strength of your portfolio, your goals, and the potential for future growth. I want to share nine strategies that can help you through the next market downturn and boost the long-term growth of your portfolio.
1. Keep calm during the market downturn
Stock investors are cheerful when the stock prices are rising but get anxious during market corrections. Significant drops in stock value can trigger panic. However, fear-based selling to limit losses is the wrong move. Here’s why. Frequently the market selloffs are followed by broad market rallies. A V-shape recovery often follows a market correction.
The hypothetical table below looks at the performance of $10,000 invested in the S&P 500 between January 4, 1988, and December 31, 2018. It’s important to note this hypothetical investment occurred during two of the biggest bear markets in history, the 2000 tech bubble crash and the 2008 global financial crisis. If you had missed the ten best market days, you would lose 2.4% of your average annual return and nearly half of your dollar return.
As long as you are making sound investment choices, your patience and the ability to tolerate paper losses will earn you more in the long run.
2. Be realistic: Don’t try to time the market
Many investors believe that they can time the market to buy low and sell high. In reality, very few investors succeed in these efforts.
According to a study by the CFA Institute Financial Analyst Journal, a buy-and-hold large-cap strategy would have outperformed, on average, about 80.7% of annual active timing strategies when the choice was between large-cap stocks, short-term T-bills, and Treasury bonds.
3. Stay diversified
Diversification is essential for your portfolio preservation and growth. Diversification, or spreading your investments among different asset classes (domestic versus foreign stocks, large-cap versus small-cap equity, treasury and corporate bonds, real estate, commodities, precious metals, etc.), will lower the risk of your portfolio in the long-run. Many experts believe that diversification is the only free lunch you can get in investing.
Uncorrelated asset classes react uniquely during market downturns and changing economic cycles.
For example, fixed income securities and gold tend to rise during bear markets when stocks fall. Conversely, equities rise during economic expansion.
4. Rebalance your portfolio regularly
Rebalancing your portfolio is a technique that allows your investment portfolio to stay aligned with your long terms goals while maintaining a desired level of risk. Typically, portfolio managers will sell out an asset class that has overperformed over the years and is now overweight. With the proceeds of the sale, they will buy an underweighted asset class.
Hypothetically, if you started investing in 2010 with a portfolio consisting of 60% Equities and 40% Fixed Income securities, without rebalancing by the end of 2019, you will hold 79% equities and 21% fixed income. Due to the last decade’s substantial rise in the stock market, many conservative and moderate investors are now holding significant equity positions in their portfolio. Rebalancing before a market downturn will help you bring your investments to your original target risk levels. If you reduce the size of your equity holdings, you will lower your exposure to stock market volatility.
5. Focus on your long-term goals
A market downturn can be tense for all investors. Regardless of how volatile the next stock market correction is, remember that “this too shall pass.”
Market crises come and go, but your goals will most likely remain the same. In fact, most goals have nothing to do with the market. Your investment portfolio is just one of the ways to achieve your goals.
Your personal financial goals can stretch over several years and decades. For investors in their 20s and 30s financial goals can go beyond 30 – 40 years. Even retirees in their 60s must ensure that their money and investments last through several decades.
Remain focused on your long-term goals. Pay of your debt. Stick to a budget. Maintain a high credit score. Live within your means and don’t risk more than you can afford to lose.
6. Use tax-loss harvesting during the market downturn
If you invest in taxable accounts, you can take advantage of tax-loss harvesting opportunities. You can sell securities at depressed prices to offset other capital gains made in the same year. Also, you can carry up to $3,000 of capital losses to offset other income from salary and dividends. The remaining unused amount of capital loss can also be carried over for future years for up to the allowed annual limit.
To take advantage of this option, you have to follow the wash sale rule. You cannot purchase the same security in the next 30 days. To stay invested in the market, you can substitute the depressed stock with another stock that has a similar profile or buy an ETF.
7. Roth Conversion
A falling stock market creates an excellent opportunity to do Roth Conversion. Roth conversion is the process of transferring Tax-Deferred Retirement Funds from a Traditional IRA or 401k plan to a tax-exempt Roth IRA. The Roth conversion requires paying upfront taxes with a goal to lower your future tax burden. The depressed stock prices during a market downturn will allow you to transfer your investments while paying lower taxes. For more about the benefits of Roth IRA, you can read here.
8. Keep a cash buffer
I always recommend to my clients and blog readers to keep at least six months of essential living expenses in a checking or a savings account. We call it an emergency fund. It’s a rainy day, which you need to keep aside for emergencies and unexpected life events. Sometimes market downturns are accompanied by recessions and layoffs. If you lose your job, you will have enough reserves to cover your essential expenses. You will avoid dipping in your retirement savings.
9. Be opportunistic and invest
Market downturns create opportunities for buying stocks at discounted prices. One of the most famous quotes by Warren Buffet is “When it’s raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.” Market selloffs rarely reflect the real long-term value of a company as they are triggered by panic, negative news, or geopolitical events. For long-term investors, market downturns present an excellent opportunity to buy their favorite stocks at a low price. If you want to get in the market after a selloff, look for established companies with strong secular revenue growth, experienced management, solid balance sheet and proven track record of paying dividends or returning money to shareholders.
Final words
Market downturns can put a huge toll on your investments and retirement savings. The lack of reliable information and the instant spread of negative news can influence your judgment and force you to make rash decisions. Market selloffs can challenge even the most experienced investors. That said, don’t allow yourself to panic even if it seems like the world is falling apart. Prepare for the next market downturn by following my list of nine recommendations. This checklist will help you “survive” the next bear market while you still follow your long-term financial goals.
The US economy continues to show resiliency despite increased political uncertainty and lower business confidence
The consumer sentiment – The US consumer is going strong. Consumer sentiment reached 93 in September 2019. While below record levels, sentiment remains above historical levels. Consumer spending, which makes up 68% of the US GDP, continues to be the primary driver of the economy.
Consumer Sentiment
Unemployment hits 3.5%, the lowest level since 1969
Wage growth of 2.9% remains above-target inflation levels
Household debt to GDP continues to trend down and is now at 76%.
Fed rate cuts – Fed announced two rate cuts and is expected to cut twice until the end of the year.
The 10-year treasury rate is near 1.75%
The 30-year mortgage rate is near 3.75%
While low-interest rates and low unemployment continue to lift consumer confidence, the question now is, “Can the US consumer save the economy from recession’?
The probability of recession is getting higher. Some economists assign a 25% chance of recession by the end of 2020 or 2021.
The ISM Manufacturing indexdropped to 47 in September, falling under for a second consecutive month. Typically readings under 50 show a sign of contraction and reading over 50 points to expansion. The ISM index is a gauge for business confidence and shows the willingness of corporate managers to higher more employees, buy new equipment and reinvest in their business.
Trade war – What started as tariff threats in 2018 have turned into a full-blown trade war with China and the European Union. The Trump administration announced a series of new import tariffs for goods coming from China and the EU. China responded with yuan devaluation and more tariffs. France introduced a new digital tax that is expected to impact primary US tech giants operating in the EU.
A study by IHS Markit’s Macroeconomic Advisers calculated that gross domestic product could be boosted by roughly 0.5% if uncertainty over trade policy ultimately dissipates.
Chinese FX and Gold reserves – China’s reserve assets dropped by $17.0b in September, comprising of $14.7bn drop in FX reserves and a $2.4bn decline in the gold reserves. China has been adding to its gold reserves for ten straight months since December 2018.
Political uncertainty – Impeachment inquiry and upcoming elections have dominated the news lately. Fears of political gridlock and uncertainty are elevating the risk for US businesses.
Slowing global growth – The last few recessions were all domestically driven due to asset bubbles and high-interest rates. This time could be different, and I do not say that very often. Just two years ago, we saw a consolidated global growth with countries around the world reporting high GDP numbers. This year we witness a sharp turn and a consolidated global slowdown. EU economies are on the verge of recession. The only thing that supports the Eurozone is the negative interest rates instituted by the ECB. China reported the slowest GDP growth in decades and announced a package of fiscal spending combined with tax cuts, regulatory rollbacks, and targeted monetary easing geared to offset the effect of the trade war and lower consumer spending. So even though the US economy is stable, a prolonged slowdown of global economies could drag the US down as well.
Equities
US Equities had a volatile summer. Most indices are trading close to or below early July levels and only helped by dividends to reach a positive quarterly return. On July 27, 2019, S&P 500 closed at an all-time high of 3,025, followed by an August selloff. A mid-September rally helped S&P 500 pass 3,000 level again, followed by another selloff. S&P 500 keeps hovering near all-time highs despite increased volatility, with 3,000 remaining a distinct level of resistance.
In a small boost for equities, the dividend yield on the S&P 500 is now higher than the 10- and 20- year US Treasury rate and barely below the 30-year rate of 2%.
For many income investors equities become an alternative to generate extra income over safer instruments such as bonds
Growth versus Value
Investing in stocks with lower valuations such as price to earnings and price to book ratios has been a losing strategy in the past decade. Investors have favored tech companies with strong revenue growth often at the expense of achieving profits. They gave many of those companies a pass in exchange for a promise to become profitable in the future.
However, while economic uncertainty is going up, the investors’ appetite for risk is going down. The value trade made a big comeback over the summer as investors flee to safe stocks with higher dividends. As a result, the utilities and consumer staple companies have outperformed the tech sector.
The IPO market
The IPO market is an indicator of the strength of the economy and the risk appetite of investors. In 2019, we had multiple flagship companies going public. Unfortunately, many of them became victims of this transition to safety. Amongst the companies with lower post IPO prices are Uber, Lyft, Smiles Direct Club, and Chewy.com. Their shares were down between -25% and -36% since their inception date. Investors walked away from many of these names looking for a clear path to profitability while moving to safety stocks.
Small-Cap
Small caps have trailed large caps due to increased fears of recession and higher market volatility. Small caps tend to outperform in a risk-on environment, where investors have a positive outlook on the economy.
International Stocks
International stocks continue to underperform. On a relative basis, these stocks are better valued and provide a higher dividend than US stocks. Unfortunately, with a few exceptions, most foreign stocks have been hurt by sluggish domestic and international demand and a slowdown in manufacturing due to higher tariffs. Many international economies are much more dependent on exports than the US economy.
Fixed Income
The Fed continued its accommodative policy and lowered its fund rate twice over the summer. Simultaneously, other Central Banks around the world have been cutting their rates very aggressively.
The European Central Bank went as far as lowering its short-term funding rate to -0.50%. As a result, the 30-year German bund is now yielding -0.03%. The value of debt with negative yield reached $13 trillion worldwide including distressed issuers such as Greece, Italy, and Spain.
Investors who buy negative-yielding bonds are effectively lending the government free money.
In one of my posts earlier in 2019, I laid out the dangers of low and negative interest rates. You can read the full article here. In summary, ultra-low and negative interest rates change dramatically the landscape for investors looking to supplement their income by buying government bonds. Those investors need to take more risk in their search for income. Low rates could also encourage frivolous spending by politicians and often lead to asset bubbles.
The Yield Curve
The yield curve shows what interest rate an investor will earn at various maturities. Traditionally, longer maturities require a higher interest rate as there is more risk to the creditor for getting the principal back. The case when long-term rates are lower than short-term rates is called yield inversion. Some economists believe that a yield inversion precedes a recession. However, there is an active debate about whether the difference between 10y and 2y or 10y and 3m is a more accurate indicator.
As you can see from the chart, the yield curve gradually inverted throughout the year. Short-term bonds with 3-month to maturity are now paying higher interest than the 10-year treasury
Credit spreads
The spread between AAA investment-grade and lower-rated high yield bonds is another indicator of an imminent credit crunch and possible economic slowdown.
Fortunately, corporate rates have been declining alongside treasury rates. Spreads between AAA and BBB-rated investment grade and B-rated high yield bonds have remained steady.
Repo market crisis
The repo market is where banks and money-market funds typically lend each other cash for periods as short as one night in exchange for safe collateral such as Treasuries. The repo rates surged as high as 10% in mid-September from about 2.25% amid an unexpected shortage of available cash in the financial system. For the first time in more than a decade, the Federal Reserve injected cash into the money market to pull down interest rates.
The Fed claimed that the cash shortage was due to technical factors. However, many economists link the shortages of funds as a result of the central bank’s decision to shrink the size of its securities holdings in recent years. The Fed reduced these holdings by not buying new ones when they matured, effectively taking money out of the financial system.
Gold
Gold has been a bright spot in our portfolio in 2019. After several years of dormant performance, investors are switching to Gold as protection from market volatility and low-interest rates. In early September, the precious metal was up nearly 21% YTD, but since then, retracted a bit.
Gold traditionally has a very low correlation to both Equities and Bonds. Even though it doesn’t generate income, it serves as an effective addition to a well-diversified portfolio.
The Gold will move higher if we continue to experience high market volatility and uncertainty on the trade war.
Final words
The US economy remains resilient with low unemployment, steadily growing wages, and strong consumer confidence. However, few cracks are starting to appear on the surface. Many manufacturers are taking a more cautious position as the effects of the global slowdown and tariffs are starting to trickle back to the US. An inverted yield curve and crunch in the repo market have raised additional concerns about the strength of the economy.
Despite the media’s prolonged crisis call, we can avoid a recession. The recent trade agreement between the US and Japan could open the gate for other bilateral trade agreements. Given that the US elections are around the corner, I believe that this administration has a high incentive to seal trade agreements with China and the EU.
The market is expecting two more Fed cuts for a total of 0.5% by the end of the year. If this happens, the Fed fund rate will drop to 1.25% – 1.5%, possibly flattening or even steepening the yield curve, which will be a positive sign for the markets.
Those with mortgage loans paying over 4% in interest may wish to consider refinancing at a lower rate.
Market volatility is inevitable. Keep a long-term view and maintain a well-diversified portfolio.
The end of the year is an excellent time to review your retirement and investment portfolio, rebalance and take advantage of any tax-loss harvesting opportunities.
About the author:
Stoyan Panayotov, CFA, MBA is the founder of Babylon Wealth Management and a fee-only financial advisor in Walnut Creek, CA, serving clients in the San Francisco Bay Area and nationally. Babylon Wealth Management specializes in financial planning and investment management for growing families, physicians, and successful business owners.
If you have any questions about the markets and your investments, reach out to me at [email protected] or +1-925-448-9880.
You can also visit my Insights page, where you can find helpful articles and resources on how to make better financial and investment decisions.
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As a financial advisor, I often speak with my clients about behavioral biases. Our emotions can put a heavy load on our investment decisions. In this article, I would like to discuss ten behavioral biases that I encounter every day. It’s not a complete list, but it’s a good starting point to understand your behavioral biases and how to deal with them.
We have to make choices every day. Often our decisions are based on limited information or constrained by time. We want to make the right call every single time. But sometimes we are wrong. Sometimes we can be our worst enemy. Stress, distraction, media, and market craziness could get the worst of us.
Behavioral finance
In 2018 Richard Thaler won the Nobel prize for his work in behavioral economics. In his 2009 book “Nudge” and later on in his 2015 book “Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioral Economics,” Thaler reveals the architecture of the human decision-making process. He talks about behavioral biases, anomalies, and impulses that drive our daily choices.
In another study about the value of the financial advisor or the advisor alpha, Vanguard concluded that clients using a financial advisor have the potential to add 1.5% of additional annual returns as a result of behavioral coaching. Further on, Vanguard concludes that because investing evokes emotion, advisors need to help their clients maintain a long-term perspective and a disciplined approach.
Afraid to start investing
Social Security is going into deficit by 2035. And most employers moving toward Defined Contribution Plans (401k, 403b, SEP-IRA). It will be up to you and me to secure our retirement by increasing our savings and investments. However, not everybody is in tune. For many people, investing is hard. It’s too complicated. Not all employers provide adequate training about retirement and investment options. And I don’t blame anyone. As much as I try to educate my blog readers, as well as many colleagues, we are outnumbered by the media and all kinds of financial gurus without proper training and credentials. If you are on the boat and want to start investing, talk to a fiduciary financial advisor, or ask your employer for educational and training literature. Don’t be afraid to ask hard questions and educate yourself.
“This time is different.”
How many times have you heard “This time is different” from a family member or the next financial guru, who is trying to sell you something? Very likely, it’s not going to be any different. As a matter, it could be worse. As humans, we tend to repeat our mistake over and over. It’s not that we don’t learn from our mistakes. But sometimes it’s just more comforting staying on your turf, not trying something new, and hoping that things will change. So, when you hear “This time is different,” you should be on high alert. Try to read between the lines and assess all your options.
Falling for “guaranteed income” or “can’t lose money” sales pitch
As many people are falling behind their retirement savings, they get tempted to a wide range of “guaranteed income” and “can’t lose money” financial products. The long list includes but not limited to annuities, life insurance products, private real estate, cryptocurrency, and reverse mortgage. Many of these products come with sky-high commissions and less than transparent fees, costly riders, and complex restrictions and high breakup fees. The sales pitch is often at an expensive steakhouse or a golf club following a meeting in the salesperson’s office where the deals are closed. If someone is offering you a free steak dinner to buy a financial product that you do not fully understand, please trust me on it – you will be the one picking the tab in the end.
Selling after a market crash
One of the most prominent behavioral biases people make in investing is selling their investments after a market crash. As painful as it could be, it’s one of the worst decisions you could make. Yes, markets are volatile. Yes, markets crash sometimes. But nobody has made any money panicking. You need to control your impulses to sell at the bottom. I know it’s not easy because I have been there myself. What really helps is thinking long-term. You can ask yourself, do you need this money right away. If you are going to retire in another 10 or 20 years, you don’t need to touch your portfolio, period. Market swings are an essential part of the economic cycle. Recessions help clean up the bad companies with a poor business model and ineffective management and let the winners take over.
You may remember that the rise of Apple coincided with the biggest recession in our lifetime, 2008 – 2009. Does anyone still remember Blackberry, Nokia, or Motorola, who were the pioneers of mobile phones?
Keeping your investments in cash
Another common behavioral bias is keeping your investments in cash…..indefinitely. People who keep their 401k or IRA in cash almost always miss the market recovery. At that point, they either have to chase the rally or must wait for a market correction and try to get in again. As a financial advisor, I would like to tell you that it is impossible to time exactly any market rally. By the time you realize it. It’s already too late.
To understand why timing the markets and avoiding risk by keeping cash can be harmful, see what happens if an investor misses the biggest up days in the market. The hypothetical table below looks at the performance of $10,000 invested in the S&P 500 between January 4, 1988, and December 31, 2018. It’s important to note this hypothetical investment occurred during two of the biggest bear markets in history, the 2000 tech bubble crash and the 2008 global financial crisis.
As you can see, missing the ten best days over between 1998 and 2018 meant earning nearly 2.5% less on an annual basis and leaving half of the potential absolute gains on the table. Here’s the kicker: Six of the 10 “best days” in the market were within weeks of the worst days in the market. In other words, some of the best days often happen as “v-shaped” bounces off the worst days. Going to cash on a big negative day means increasing the risk of missing a big positive day which, as can be seen from the table above, can have a substantial impact on your returns over time.
Chasing hot investments
One of the most common behavioral biases is chasing hot investments. People generally like to be with the winners. It feels good. It pumps your ego. There is a whole theory of momentum investing based on findings that investors buy recent winners and continue to buy their stock for another 6 to 12 months. We have seen it time and time again – from the tech bubble in 2000, through the mortgage-backed securities in 2008, to cryptocurrency and cannabis stocks in 2018. People like highflyers. Some prior hot stocks like Apple, Google, and Amazon dominate the stock markets today. Others like Motorola, Nokia, and GE dwindle in obscureness. If an investment had a considerable run, sometimes it’s better to let it go. Don’t chase it.
Holding your losers too long
“The most important thing to do if you find yourself in a hole is to stop digging.” – Warren Buffett.
In a research conducted in the 1990s by professor Terrance Odean, he concluded that investors tend to hold to their losers a lot longer than their winners. A result of this approach, those investors continue to incur losses in the near future. Professor Odean offers a few explanations for his findings. One reason is that investors rationally or irrationally believe that their current losers will outperform. A second explanation comes from the Prospect Theory by Kahneman and Tversky (1979). According to them, investors become risk-averse about their winners and risk-seeking to their losers.
When it comes to losing bets, they are willing to take a higher gamble and seek to recover their original purchase price. A third theory that I support and observed is based on emotions. The pain from selling your losers is twice as high as the joy from selling your winners. We don’t like to be wrong. We want to hold on to the hope that we made the right decision. After all, it is a gamble, and the odds will be against you. At some point, we just need to make peace with your losses and move on. It’s not easy, but it’s the right thing to do.
Holding your winners too long
There is a quote by the famous financier Bernard Baruch – “I made my money by selling too soon.” Many people, however, often hold on to their winners for very long. Psychologically, it’s comforting to see your winners and feel great about your investment choices. There is nothing wrong with being a winner. But at some point, you must ask yourself, is it worth it. How long this run can go for and should you cash in some of your profits. What if your winners are making up a large part of your investment portfolio? Wouldn’t this put your entire retirement savings at risk if something were to happen to that investment?
There is no one-size-fits-all answer when it comes to selling your winners. Furthermore, there could be tax implications if you realize the gains in your brokerage account. However, it’s prudent to have an exit strategy. As much as it hurts (stops the joy) to sell the winners, it could lower the risk of your portfolio and allow you to diversify amongst other investments and asset classes.
Checking your portfolio every day
The stock market is volatile. Your investments will change every day. There will be large swings in both directions. So, checking your portfolio every single day can only drive crazy and will not move the needle. It could lead to irrational and emotional decisions that could have serious long-term repercussions. Be patient, disciplined, and follow your long-term plan.
Not seeking advice
Seeking advice from a complete stranger can be scary. You must reveal some of your biggest secrets to a person you never met before. It’s s big step. I wish the media spends more time talking about the thousands of fiduciary advisors out there who honestly and trustworthy look for your best interest.
My financial advisory service is based on trust between you as a client and me as the advisor . So, do not be afraid to seek advice, but you also need to do your homework. Find an advisor who will represent you and your family and will care about your personal goal and financial priorities. Don’t be afraid to interview several advisors before you find the best match for you.
Final words
“The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect. You need a temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd or against the crowd.” – Warren Buffet.
Investing is an emotional act. We put our chips on the table and wish for a great outcome. We win, or we lose. Understanding your emotions and behavioral biases will help you become a better investor. It doesn’t mean that we will always make the right decisions. It doesn’t mean that we will never make a mistake again. We are humans, not robots. Behavioral biases are part of our system. Knowing how we feel and why feel a certain way, can help us when the markets are volatile, when things get ugly or the “next big thing” is offered to us. Look at the big picture. Know your goals and financial priorities. Try to block the noise and keep a long-term view.
Reach out
If you have questions about your investments and retirement savings, reach out to me at [email protected] or +925-448-9880.
You can also visit my Insights page, where you can find helpful articles and resources on how to make better financial and investment decisions.
Whether you are just starting your career or about to
retire, you need to understand the risks you are facing when you plan for your
future retirement.
Most experts recommend that you should aim to replace about 80% of work income during your retirement. Part of your retirement income will come from Social Security. Other sources could be a public pension, IRAs, 401k, rental income, sale of real estate or business, royalties, or a part-time job. However, the 80% is not a definite number. The amount you need in retirement could vary substantially depending on your lifestyle, family size, number of dependents, health issues, and so on.
For reference, very few people
reach these upper limits. The average Social Security retirement benefit in
2019 is $1,461 a month. The average disability benefit is $1,234.
Unfortunately, the Social Security trust is already running a deficit. Currently, the Social Security is paying more benefits than all the proceed its receiving from the payroll taxes. Its reserve will be depleted by 2035. After that point, social security recipients will have to receive only a portion of their actual benefit. The current estimate is around 75%.
Pension Shortfall
Similarly to Social Security, most of the public and private pension plans nationwide have an enormous shortfall between assets and their future liabilities. According to a recent study by Pew Charitable Trust and Pension Tracker, US public pension shortfall is over $1 trillion. States like Alaska, California, Illinois, Ohio, Hawaii, and New Jersey have one of the highest pension burdens in the nation. Even after ten years of economic recovery and bull market, most state pension plans are not prepared to face another downturn. Policymakers must take urgent measures to close the pension funding gap, which remains at historically high levels as a share of GDP.
Low savings rate
With social security benefits expected to shrink, I advise my clients that they need to increase their savings in order to supplement their income in the future. Retirement savings in IRA, 401k and even a brokerage account will provide you with the necessary income during your retirement years.
Unfortunately, not everyone is forward-looking. The average 401k balance, according to Fidelity, is $106,000 in 2019, while the average IRA is $110,000. The sad reality is that most Americans do not save enough for retirement and we are facing a retirement crisis.
Not saving enough for retirement is the highest risk of enjoying your retirement years.
Relying on a single
source
Many people make the mistake of relying on a single source
of income for their retirement.
Imagine that you were planning to retire in 2009 upon
selling a piece of real estate. Or you had all your retirement savings in a
401k plan and the market just crashed 50%. Many of these folks had to delay their
retirement for several years to make up for the lost income. Similarly, selling
your business can be risky too. With technology advancements, many businesses
are becoming obsolete. You may not always be able to find buyers or get the
highest price for your business.
We always recommend to our clients to have a diversified
stream of retirement income. Diversifying your source will create a natural
safety net and potentially could increase the predictability of your income in
retirement.
Market risk
We all would like to retire when the market is up and our retirement account balance is high. However, the income from these retirement accounts like IRA, Roth IRA and 401k are not guaranteed. As more people relying on them for retirement, their savings become subject to market turbulence and the wellbeing of the economy. Today, prospective retirees must confront with high equity valuations, volatile markets, and ultra-low and even negative yields.
In my practice, I use my clients’ risk tolerance as an indicator of their comfort level during market volatility. With market risk in mind, I craft well-diversified individual retirement strategies based on my clients’ risk tolerance and long-term and short-term financial goals.
Sequence of returns
The sequence of returns is the order of how your portfolio
returns happen over time. If you are in your accumulation phase, the sequence of
return doesn’t impact your final outcome. You will end up with the same amount
regardless of the order of your annual returns.
However, if you are in your withdrawal phase, the sequence of returns can have a dramatic impact on your retirement income. Most retires with a 401k or IRAs have to periodically sell a portion of their portfolios to supplement their income. Most financial planning software uses an average annual return rate to project future account balance. However, these average estimates become meaningless if you experience a large loss at the start of your retirement.
Our retirement strategies take the sequence of returns very
seriously. Some of the tools we use involve maintaining cash buffers, building bond
ladders and keeping a flexible budget.
Taxes
Your IRA balance might be comforting but not all of it is yours. You will owe income taxes on every dollar you take out of any tax-deferred account (IRA, 401k, 403b). You will pay capital gain taxes on all realized gains in your brokerage accounts. Even Social Security is taxable.
With skyrocketing deficits in the treasury budget, social
security and public pensions will guarantee one thing – higher taxes. There is
no doubt that someone will have to pick up the check. And that someone is the
US taxpayer – me and you.
Managing your taxes is a core function of our wealth management practice. Obviously, we all must pay taxes. And we can not predict what politicians will decide in the future. However, managing your investments in a tax-efficient manner will ensure that you keep more money in your pocket.
Inflation risk
Most retirees have a significant portion of their portfolios in fixed income. Modern portfolio managers use fixed income instruments to reduce investment risk for their clients. At the time of this article, we are seeing negative and near-zero interest rates around the world. However, with inflation going at around 2% a year, the income from fixed-income investments will not cover the cost of living adjustments. Retirees will effectively lose purchasing power on their dollars.
Interest risk
Bonds lose value when interest rates go up and make gains when interest rates go down. For over a decade, we have seen rock bottom interest rates. We had a small blip in 2018 when the Fed raised rates 4 times and 1 year’s CDs reached 2.5%. At that point in time, many investors were worried that higher interest rates will hurt bond investors, consumers and even companies who use a lot of debt to finance their business. Even though these fears are subdued for now, interest rates remain a viable threat. Negative interest rates are as bad for fixed income investors as the high rates are. Unfortunately, traditional bond portfolios may not be sufficient to provide income and protect investors for market swings. Investors will need to seek alternatives or take higher risks to generate income.
Unexpected expenses
Most financial planning software will lay out a financial plan including your projected costs during retirement. While most financial planning software these days is quite sophisticated, the plan remains a plan. We can not predict the unexpected. In my practice, I regularly see clients withdrawing large sums from their retirement savings to finance a new home, renovation, a new car, college fees, legal fees, unexpectedly high taxes and so on. Reducing your retirement savings can be a bad idea on many levels. I typically recommend building an emergency fund worth at least 6 months of living expenses to cover any unexpected expenses that may occur. That way, you don’t have to touch your retirement savings.
Healthcare cost
The average health care cost of a retired couple is $260,000. This estimate could vary significantly depending on your health. Unless you have full health insurance from your previous employer, you will need to budget a portion of your retirement savings to cover health-related expenses. Keep in mind that Medicare part A covers only part of your health cost. The remaining, parts B, C, and D, will be paid out of pocket or through private insurance.
Furthermore, as CNBC reported, the cost of long-term care
insurance has gone up by more than 60% between 2013 and 2018 and continues to
go higher. The annual national median cost of a private room in a nursing home
was $100,375 in 2018.
For future retirees, even those in good shape, healthcare costs will be one of the largest expenses during retirement. In my practice, I take this risk very seriously and work with my clients to cover all bases of their health care coverage during retirement.
Longevity
Longevity risk is the risk of running out of money during retirement. Running out of money depends on an array of factors including your health, lifestyle, family support and the size and sources of retirement income. My goal as a financial advisor is to ensure that your money lasts you through the rest of your life.
Legacy risk
For many of my clients leaving a legacy is an important part of their personal goal. Whether funding college expenses, taking care of loved ones or donating to a charitable cause, legacy planning is a cornerstone of our financial plan. Having a robust estate plan will reduce the risks to your assets when you are gone or incapacitated to make decisions.
Liquidity Risk
Liquidity risk is the risk that you will not be able to find buyers for your investments and other assets that you are ready to sell. Often times, during an economic downturn, the liquidity shrinks. There will be more sellers than buyers. The banks are not willing to extend loans to finance riskier deals. In many cases, the sellers will have to sell their assets at a significant discount to facilitate the transaction.
Behavioral risk
Typically, investors are willing to take more risk when the economy is good and the equity markets are high. Investors become more conservative and risk-averse when markets drop significantly. As humans, we have behavioral biases, Sometimes, we let our emotions get the worst of us. We spend frivolously. We chase hot stocks. Or keep all investments in cash. Or sell after a market crash. Working with a fiduciary advisor will help you understand these biases. Together, we can find a way to make unbiased decisions looking after your top financial priorities.
Final Words
Preparing for retirement is a long process. It involves a wide range of obstacles. With proper long-term planning, you can avoid or minimize some of these risks. You can focus on reaching your financial goals and enjoying what matters most to you.
Reach out
If you need help growing your retirement savings, reach out to me at [email protected] or +925-448-9880.
You can also visit my Insights page, where you can find helpful articles and resources on how to make better financial and investment decisions.
So far 2019 has been the year of breaking records. We are officially in the longest economic expansion, which started in June of 2009. After the steep market selloff in December, the major US indices have recovered their losses and reached new highs. The hopes for a resolution on trade, the Fed lowering interest rates and strong US consumer spending, have lifted the markets. At the same time, many investors remain nervous fearing an upcoming recession and slowing global growth.
S&P 500 in
record territory
S&P 500 hit an all-time high in June, which turned out to be best June since 1938. Furthermore, the US Large Cap Index had its best first quarter (January thru March) and the best first half of the year since the 1980s.
Market Outlook July 2019
US
treasuries rates declined
Despite the enthusiasm in the equity world, fixed income investors are ringing the alarm bell. 10-year treasury rate dropped under 2%, while 2-year treasuries fell as low as 1.7%.
We continue to observe a persistent yield inversion with the 3-month treasury rates higher than 2-year and 10-year rates. Simultaneously, the spread between the 2 and 10-year remains positive. Historically, a yield inversion has been a sign for an upcoming recession. However, most economists believe that the 2-10-year spread is a better indicator than the 3m-10-year spread.
Gold is on
the move
Gold passed 1,400. With increased market volatility and investors fears for a recession, Gold has made a small comeback and reached $1,400, the highest level since 2014.
Bonds beating S&P 500
Despite the record highs, S&P 500 has underperformed the Bond market and Gold from October 2018 to June 2019 S&P 500 is up only 1.8% since October 1, 2018, while the 10-year bond rose 8.7% and Gold gained 16.8%. For those loyal believers of diversification like myself, these figures show that diversification still works.
Defensive
Stocks lead the rally in Q2
Consumer Staples and Utilities outperformed the broader market in Q2 of 2019. The combination of lower interest rates, higher market volatility and fears for recessions, have led many investors into a defensive mode. Consumer staples like Procter & Gamble and Clorox together with utility giants like Southern and Con Edison have led the rally in the past three months.
Small-Cap lagging
Small cap
stocks are still under all-time high levels in August of 2018. While both
S&P 600 and Russell 2000 recovered from the market selloff in December o
2018, they are still below their record high levels by -13.6% and 10%
respectively
International Stocks disappoint
International
Developed and Emerging Stocks have also not recovered from their record highs
in January of 2018. The FTSE
International Developed market index is 13.4% below its highest levels. While
MSCI EM index dropped nearly 18.3% from these levels.
The Fed
After hiking their target rates four times in 2018, the Fed has taken a more dovish position and opened the door for a possible rate cut in 2020 if not sooner. Currently, the market is expecting a 50-bps to a 75-bps rate cut by the end of the year.
As I wrote this article, The Fed chairman Jerome Powell testified in front of congress that crosscurrents from weaker global economy and trade tensions are dampening the U.S. economic outlook. He also said inflation continues to run below the Fed’s 2% target, adding: “There is a risk that weak inflation will be even more persistent than we currently anticipate.”
Unemployment
The unemployment rate remains at a record low level at 3.7%. In June, the US economy added 224,000 new jobs and 335,000 people entered the workforce. The wage growth was 3.1%.
Consumer
spending
The US consumer
confidence remains high at 98 albeit below the record levels in 2018. Consumer
spending has reached $13 trillion. Combined with low unemployment, the consumer
spending will be a strong force in supporting the current economic expansion.
Manufacturingis weakening
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing index dropped to 51.7 in June from 52.1 in May. Readings above 50 indicate activity indicate expanding, while those below 50 show contraction. While we still in the expansion territory, June 2019 had the lowest value since 2016. Trade tensions with China, Mexico, and Europe, and slowing global growth have triggered the alarm as many businesses are preparing for a slowdown by delaying capital investment and large inventory purchases.
Trade war
truce for now
The trade war
is on pause. After a break in May, the US and China will continue their trade
negotiations. European auto tariffs are on hold. And raising tariffs on Mexican
goods is no longer on the table (for now). Cheering investors have lifted the
markets in June hoping for a long-term resolution.
Dividend is
the king
With interest
rates remaining low, I expect dividend stocks to attract more investors’
interest. Except for consumer staples and utilities, dividend stocks have
trailed the S&P 500 so far this year. Many of the dividend payers like
AT&T, AbbVie, Chevron, and IBM had a lagging performance. However, the
investor’s appetite for income could reverse this trend.
The 3,000
As I was writing this article the S&P 500 crossed the magical 3,000. If the index is able to maintain this level, we could have a possible catalyst for another leg up of this bull market.
The
elections are coming
The US Presidential elections are coming. Health Care cost, rising student debt, income inequality, looming retirement crisis, illegal immigration, and the skyrocketing budget deficit will be among the main topics of discussion. Historically there were only four times during an election year when the stock market crashed. All of them coincided with major economic crises – The Great Depression, World War II, the bubble, and the Financial crisis. Only one time, 1940 was a reelection year.
S&P 500 Returns During Election Years
Year
Return
Candidates
1928
43.60%
Hoover
vs. Smith
1932
-8.20%
Roosevelt
vs. Hoover
1936
33.90%
Roosevelt
vs. Landon
1940
-9.80%
Roosevelt
vs. Willkie
1944
19.70%
Roosevelt
vs. Dewey
1948
5.50%
Truman
vs. Dewey
1952
18.40%
Eisenhower
vs. Stevenson
1956
6.60%
Eisenhower
vs. Stevenson
1960
0.50%
Kennedy
vs. Nixon
1964
16.50%
Johnson
vs. Goldwater
1968
11.10%
Nixon
vs. Humphrey
1972
19.00%
Nixon
vs. McGovern
1976
23.80%
Carter
vs. Ford
1980
32.40%
Reagan
vs. Carter
1984
6.30%
Reagan
vs. Mondale
1988
16.80%
Bush
vs. Dukakis
1992
7.60%
Clinton
vs. Bush
1996
23.00%
Clinton
vs. Dole
2000
-9.10%
Bush
vs. Gore
2004
10.90%
Bush
vs. Kerry
2008
-37.00%
Obama
vs. McCain
2012
16.00%
Obama
vs. Romney
2016
11.90%
Trump
vs. Clinton
Final words
The US Economy remains strong despite headwinds from trade tensions and slowing global growth. GDP growth above 3% combined with a possible rate cut lat and resolution of the trade negotiations with China, could lift the equity markets another 5% to 10%.
Another market pullback is possible but I would see it as a buying opportunity if the economy remains strong.
If your portfolio has extra cash, this could be a good opportunity to buy short-term CDs at above 2% rate.
Reach out
If you have any questions about the markets and your investment portfolio, reach out to me at [email protected] or +925-448-9880.
You can also visit my Insights page where you can find helpful articles and resources on how to make better financial and investment decisions.
The solo 401k plan is a powerful tool for entrepreneurs to save money for retirement and reduce their current tax bill. These plans are often ignored and overshadowed by the more popular corporate 401k and SEP IRA plans. In fact, there is a lack of widely available public information about them. Simply put, not many people know about it. In this article, I will discuss 8 reasons why entrepreneurs should open a solo 401k plan.
Solo or one participant 401k plans are available to solo entrepreneurs who do not have any personnel on staff. If a business owner employs seasonal workers who register less than 1,000 hours a year, then he or she may be eligible for the solo 401k plans as well. The solo plans have most of the characteristics of the traditional 401k plan without any of the restrictions.
What are some of the most significant benefits of the self-employed 401k?
Maximize your retirement savings with a solo 401k
Self-employed 401k allows a business owner to save up to $56,000 a year for retirement, plus an additional $6,000 if age 50 and over. How does the math work exactly?
Solo entrepreneurs play a dual role in their business – an employee and an employer. As an employee, they can contribute up to $19,000 a year plus catch-up of $6,000 if over the age of 50. Further, the business owner can add up to $37,000 of contribution as an employer match. The employee’s side of the contribution is subject to 25% of the total compensation, which the business owner must pay herself.
Example: Jessica, age 52, has a solo practice. She earns a W2 salary of $100,000 from her S-corporation. Jessica set-up a solo 401k plan. In 2017 she can contribute $18,000 plus $6,000 catch-up, for a total of $24,000 as an employee of her company. Additionally, Jessica can add up to $25,000 (25% x $100,000) as an employer. All-n-all, she can save up to $49,000 in her solo 401k plan.
One important side note, if a business owner works for another company and participates in their 401(k), the above limits are applicable per person, not per plan. Therefore, the entrepreneur has to deduct any contributions from the second plan to stay within the allowed limits.
Add your spouse
A business owner can add his or her spouse to the 401k plan subject to the same limits discussed above. To be eligible for these contributions, the spouse has to earn income from the business. The spouse must report a wage from the company on a W2 form for tax purposes.
Reduce your current tax bill
The solo 401k plans contributions will reduce your tax bill at year-end. The wage contributions will lower your ordinary income tax. The company contributions will decrease your corporate tax.
This is a very significant benefit for all business owners and in particular for those who fall into higher income tax brackets. If an entrepreneur believes that her tax rate will go down in the future, maximizing her current solo 401k contributions now, can deliver substantial tax benefits in the long run.
Opt for Roth contributions
Most solo 401k plans allow for Roth contributions. These contributions are after taxes. Therefore, they do not lower current taxes. However, the long-term benefit is that all investments from Roth contributions grow tax-free. No taxes will be due at withdrawal during retirement.
Only the employee contributions are eligible for the Roth status. So solo entrepreneur can add up to $19,000 plus $6,000 in post-tax Roth contributions and $37,000 as tax-deductible employer contributions.
The Roth contributions are especially beneficial for young entrepreneurs or those in a lower tax bracket who expect that their income and taxes will be higher when they retire. By paying taxes now at a lower rate, plan owners avoid paying much larger tax bill later when they retire, assuming their tax rate will be higher.
No annual test
Solo 401k plans are not subject to the same strict regulations as their corporate rivals. Self-employed plans do not require a discrimination test as long as the only participants are the business owner and the spouse.
If the company employs workers who meet the eligibility requirements, they must be included in the plan. To be eligible for the 401k plan, the worker must be a salaried full-time employee working more than 1,000 hours a year. In those cases, the plan administrator must conduct annual discrimination test which assesses the employee participation in the 401k plan. As long as solo entrepreneurs do not hire any full-time workers, they can avoid the discrimination test in their 401k plan.
No annual filing
Another benefit of the 401k plans is the exemption from annual filing a form 5500-EZ, as long as the year-end plan assets do not exceed $250,000. If plan assets exceed that amount, the plan administrator or the owner himself must do the annual filing. To learn more about the annual filing process, visit this page.
Asset protection
401k plans offer one of the highest bankruptcy protection than any other retirement accounts including IRA. The assets in 401k are safe from creditors as long as they remain there.
In general, all ERISA eligible retirement plans like 401k plan are sheltered from creditors. Non-ERISA plans like IRAs are also protected up to $1,283,025 (in aggregate) under federal law plus any additional state law protection.
Flexibility
You can open a self-employed 401k plan at nearly any broker like Fidelity, Schwab or Vanguard. The process is relatively straightforward. It requires filling out a form, company name, Tax ID, etc. Most brokers will act as your plan administrator. As long as, the business owner remain self-employed, doesn’t hire any full-time workers and plan assets do not exceed $250,000, plan administration will be relatively straightforward.
As a sponsor of your 401k plan, you can choose to manage it yourself or hire an investment advisor. Either way, most solo 401k plans offer a broader range of investments than comparable corporate 401k plans. Depending on your provider you may have access to a more extensive selection of investment choices including ETFs, low-cost mutual funds, stocks, and REITs. Always verify your investment selection and trading costs before opening an account with any financial provider.
The 529 plan is a tax-advantaged state-sponsored investment plan, which allows parents to save for their children college expenses.
In the past 20 years, college expenses have skyrocketed exponentially putting many families in a difficult situation. Between 1998 and 2018, college tuition and fee have doubled in most private non-profit schools and more than tripled in most 4-year public colleges and universities.
Source: College Board
With this article, I would like to share how the 529 plan can help you send your kids or grandkids to college.
Student Debt is Growing
The student debt has reached $1.56 trillion with a growing number of parents taking on student loans to pay for their children’ college expenses. The total number of US borrowers with student loan debt is now 44.7 million.
Amid this grim statistic, less than 30% of families are aware of the 529 plan. The 529 plan could be a powerful vehicle to save for college expenses. Fortunately, 529 plans have grown in popularity in the past 10 years. There are more than 13 million 529 accounts with an average size of $24,057.
Let’s break down some of the benefits of the 529 plan.
College Savings Made Easy
Nowadays, you can easily open an account with any 529 state plan in just a few minutes and manage it online. You can set up automatic contributions from your bank account. Also, many employers allow direct payroll deductions and some even offer a match. Your contributions and dividends are reinvested automatically., so you don’t have to worry about it yourself. As a parent, you can open a 529 plan with as little as $25 and contribute as low as $15 per pay period. Most direct plans have no application, sales, or maintenance fees. 529 plan is affordable even for those on a modest budget.
529 plan offers flexible Investment Options
Most 529 plans provide a wide variety of professionally managed investment portfolios including age-based, indexed, and actively-managed options. The age-based option is an all-in-one portfolio series intended for those saving for college. The allocation automatically shifts from aggressive to conservative investments as your child approaches college age.
Alternatively, you can design your portfolio choosing between a mix of actively managed and index funds, matching your risk tolerance, timeline, and investment preferences. Some 529 plans offer guaranteed options, which limit your investment risk but also cap your upside.
Earnings Grow Tax-Free
529 plan works similarly to the Roth IRA. You make post-tax contributions. And your investment earnings will grow free from federal and state income tax when used for qualified expenses. Compared to a regular brokerage account, the 529 plan has a distinct tax advantage as you will never pay taxes on your dividends and capital gains.
Tax-exempt growth
The chart hypothetically assumes a $6,300 annual contribution, a 5% average annual return and a 20% average tax rate on taxable income in a comparable brokerage account. The final year post-tax difference would be $14,539, without taking into consideration state tax deductions.on contributions and impact on financial aid application.
Your State May Offer a Tax Break
Over 30 states offer a full or partial tax deduction or credit on your 529 contributions. You can find the full list here. If you live in any of these states, your 529 contributions can lower significantly your state tax bill. However, these states usually require you to use the state-run 529 plan.
If you live in any of the remaining states that don’t offer any state tax deductions, such as California, you can open a 529 account in any state of your choice.
Use at Schools Anywhere
529 funds can be used at any accredited university, college or vocational school nationwide and more than 400 schools abroad. Basically, any institution eligible to participate in a federal student aid program qualifies. A 529 plan can be used to pay for tuition, certain room and board costs, computers and related technology expenses as well as fees, books, supplies, and other equipment.
The TCJA law of 2017 expanded the use of 529 funds and allowed parents to use up to $10,000 annually per student for tuition expenses at a public, private or religious elementary, middle, or high school. However, please check with your 529 plan as not all states passed that provision
Smaller Impact on Scholarship and Financial Aid
Many parents worry that 529 savings can adversely affect eligibility for scholarships and financial aid. Fortunately, 529 plan savings have no impact on merit scholarships. You can even withdraw funds from the 529 plan penalty-free up to the amount of the student scholarship.
For FAFSA, funds are typically treated as ownership of the parent, not the child, reducing the impact on financial aid application. A key component of the financial aid application is the Expected Family Contribution (EFC). Since 529 plans are considered parents’ assets, they are assessed at 5.64% of their value. For comparison, any accounts owned directly by the student such as custodial accounts (UTMAs, UGMAs), trusts and investment accounts are assessed at 20% of their value.
Lower Cost versus Borrowing Money
Starting the 529 plan early can save you money in the long run. The tax advantages of the 529 plan combined with the compounding growth over 18 years it will provide you with substantial long-term savings compared to taking a student loan.
529 plan provide Estate Tax Planning Benefits
Your 529 plan contributions may qualify for an annual gift tax exclusion of $15,000 per year for single filers and $30,000 a year for couples. The 529 plan is the only investment vehicle that allows you to contribute up to 5 years’ worth of gifts at once — for a maximum of $75,000 for a single filer and $150,000 for couples.
Other Family Members Can Contribute Too
Grandparents, as well as other family and friends, can make gifts to your 529 account. They can also set up their own 529 accounts and designate your child as a beneficiary. The grandparent-owned 529 account is not reportable on the student’s FAFSA, which is good for financial aid eligibility. However, any distributions to the student or the student’s school from a grandparent-owned 529 will be added to the student income on the following year’s FAFSA. Student income is assessed at 50%, which means if a grandparent pays $10,000 of college costs it would reduce the student’s eligibility for aid by $5,000.
Transfer funds to ABLE Account
Achieving a Better Life Experience (ABLE) account was first introduced in 2014. The ABLE account works similarly to a 529 plan with certain conditions. It allows parents of children with disabilities to save for qualified education, job training, healthcare, and living expenses.
Under the TCJA law, 529 funds can be rolled over into an ABLE account, without paying taxes or penalties.
Assign Extra Funds to Other Family Members
Finally, if your child or grandchild doesn’t need all the money or his or her education plans change, you can designate a new beneficiary penalty-free so long as they’re an eligible member of your family. Moreover, you can even use the extra funds for your personal education and learning new skills.
Restricted Stock Units are a popular equity compensation for both start-up and public companies. Employers, especially many startups, use a variety of compensation options to attract and keep top-performing employees. Receiving RSUs allows employees to share in the ownership and the profits of the company. Equity compensation takes different forms such as stock options, restricted stock units, and deferred compensation. If you are fortunate to receive RSU from your employer, you should understand the basics of this corporate perk. Here are some essential tips on how to manage them.
What are RSUs?
A restricted stock unit is a type of equity compensation by companies to employees in the form of company stock. Employees receive RSUs through a vesting plan and distribution schedule after achieving required performance milestones or upon remaining with their employer for a particular length of time. RSUs give an employee interest in company stock but they have no tangible value until vesting is complete.
Vesting Schedule
Companies issue restricted stock units according to a vesting schedule.
The vesting schedule outlines the rules by which employees receive full ownership of their company stock. The restricted stock units are assigned a fair market value when they vest. Upon vesting, they are considered income, and often a portion of the shares is withheld to pay income taxes. The employees receive the remaining shares and can sell them at their discretion.
As an employee, you should keep track of these essential dates and figures.
Grant Date
The grant date is the date when the company pledges the shares to you. You will be able to see them in your corporate account.
Vesting Date
You only own the shares when the granted RSUs are fully ‘vested’. On the vesting date, your employer will transfer the full ownership of the shares to you. Upon vesting, you will become the owner of the shares.
Fair Market Value
When vesting is complete, the restricted stock units are valued according to the fair market value (FMV) at that time. Your employer will provide you with the FMV based on public price or private assessment.
Selling your RSU
Once the RSUs are converted to company stock, you become a shareholder in your firm. You will be able to sell all or some of these shares subject to companies’ holding period restrictions. Many firms impose trading windows and limits for employees and senior executives.
How are RSUs taxed?
You do not pay taxes on your restricted stock units when you first receive them. Typically you will owe ordinary income tax on the fair market value of your shares as soon as they vest.
The fair market value of your vested RSUs is taxable as personal income in the year of vesting. This is a compensation income and will be subject to federal and local taxes as well as Social Security and Medicare charges.
Typically, companies withhold part of the shares to cover all taxes. They will give employees the remaining shares. At this point, you can decide to keep or sell them at your wish. If your employer doesn’t withhold taxes for your vested shares, you will be responsible for paying these taxes during the tax season.
Double Trigger RSUs
Many private Pre-IPO companies would offer double-trigger RSUs. These types of RSUs become taxable under two conditions:
1. Your RSU are vested
2. You experience a liquidity event such as an IPO, tender offer, or acquisition.
You will not owe taxes on any double-trigger RSUs at your vesting date. However, you will all taxes on ALL your vested shares in the day of your liquidity event.
Capital gain taxes
When you decide to sell your shares, you will pay capital gain taxes on the difference between the current market price and the original purchase price.
You will need to pay short-term capital gain taxes for shares held less than a year from the vesting date. Short-term capital gains are taxable as ordinary income.
You will owe long-term capital gains taxes for shares that you held for longer than one year. Long-term capital gains have a preferential tax treatment with rates between 0%, 15%, and 20% depending on your income.
Investment risk with RSUs
Being a shareholder in your firm could be very exciting. If your company is in great health and growing solidly, this could be an enormous boost to your personal finances.
However, here is the other side of the story. Owning too much of your company stock could impose significant risks to your investment portfolio and retirement goals. You are already earning a salary from your employer. Concentrating your entire wealth and income from the same source could jeopardize your financial health if your employer fails to succeed in its business ventures. Many of you remember the fall of Enron and Lehman Brothers. Many of their employees lost not only their jobs but a significant portion of their retirement savings.
As a fiduciary advisor, I always recommend diversification and caution. Try to limit your exposure to your employer and sell your shares periodically. Sometimes paying taxes is worth the peace of mind and safety.
Key takeaways
Receiving RSUs is an excellent way to acquire company stock and become part of your company’s future. While risky owning RSUs often comes with a huge financial upside. Realizing some of these gains could help you build a strong foundation for retirement and financial freedom. When managed properly, they can help you achieve your financial goals, whether they are buying a home, taking your kids to college, or early retirement.
S&P 500 is down almost -16% so far in the last quarter of 2018. The market rout which started in October continued with a powerful selloff in December. The technology-heavy NASDAQ is down -20%, while the small-cap Russell 2000 dropped nearly -22%.
Despite our strong economy major buyers remain on the sideline and retail investors are looking for a bottom..
In my previous article, I talked about the perfect storm that started the market drop in October. Since then more negative news continued to bombard the markets. The markets do not like uncertainty.
Here are some of the factors that triggered fears across the sellers.
Apple stopping to report iPhone sales
FedEx reporting lower guidance for 2019
The resignation of General Mattis
Government shutdown
Failing Brexit negotiations
Trump criticizing the Fed
The recent arrest of Huawei CFO and three Canadians in China
The combination of more negative news and low trading volumes created yet another perfect storm for what we observed in December 2018.
The asset classes performance
2018 will remain in history as the year when holding cash was the only profitable strategy. Almost all major asset classes are in the red for 2018.
Future Outlook
As I mentioned earlier, all major macroeconomic factors are in a positive territory.
Highest corporate earnings growth since 2010
GDP growth over 3%
Record high consumer sentiment
End of year holiday shopping is expected to beat all records
Record low unemployment
Highest wage growth since 2008
Business activity remains high
Interest rates stay under historical levels
Low oil prices will temper inflation and business cost
Many economists believe that we are in the last leg of economic expansion. Moreover, some are even predicting a market recession in 2020. However, there is an old joke that the markets have predicted 9 out of the past 5 recessions. In spite the fact that equity markets are forward-looking, they have not been an accurate indicator for an economic recession.
Realistically speaking it would be very hard to enter recession from where we are today unless we see a very steep deterioration in 2019.
The law of mean reversion.
Everything reverts to the mean sooner or later. Last year we had one of the least volatile markets in our recent history. As a result, the S&P 500 standard deviation, a measure of risk, dropped to 3.8% well below average historical levels of 13%. This year’s market volatility is back to these average levels.
Diversify
In any market environment, volatile or not, diversification is essential way to reduce portfolio risk.
Think long term
The best long-term investment strategy has always been buy-and-hold. Trying to time the market is a bad idea. There are many studies that show timing the market would underperform a buy and hold strategy in the long run.
Don’t watch the market every day.
Media skews the news to what is trendy and get more readership.
Use your best judgement.
Panicking has never helped anyone. If you are uncertain seek advice from a fiduciary advisor who has your best interest in mind.
About the author:
Stoyan Panayotov, CFA is the founder and CEO of Babylon Wealth Management, a fee-only investment advisory firm based in Walnut Creek, CA. Babylon Wealth Management offers personalized wealth management and financial planning services to individuals and families. To learn more visit our Private Client Services page here. Additionally, we offer Outsourced Chief Investment Officer services to professional advisors (RIAs), family offices, endowments, defined benefit plans, and other institutional clients. To find out more visit our OCIO page here.
Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Nothing in this article should be construed as a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, to buy or sell any security. The content of this article is a sole opinion of the author and Babylon Wealth Management. The opinion and information provided are only valid at the time of publishing this article. Investing in these asset classes may not be appropriate for your investment portfolio. If you decide to invest in any of the instruments discussed in the posting, you have to consider your risk tolerance, investment objectives, asset allocation, and overall financial situation. Different investors have different financial circumstances, and not all recommendations apply to everybody. Seek advice from your investment advisor before proceeding with any investment decisions. Various sources may provide different figures due to variations in methodology and timing,
The recent market volatility – the tale of the perfect storm
October is traditionally a rough month for stocks. And October 2018 proved it.
S&P 500 went down -6.9% in October after gaining as much as 10.37% in the first nine months of the year. Despite recouping some its losses in early November, the market continues to be volatile with large daily swings in both directions. On top of that, Small Cap stocks which were leading the way till late September went down almost 10% in the span of a few weeks.
So what lead to this rout?
The market outlook in September was very positive. Consumer sentiment and business optimism were at a record high. Unemployment hit a record low. And the market didn’t really worry about tariffs.
I compiled a list of factors which had a meaningful impact on the recent market volatility. As the headline suggested, I don’t believe there was a single catalyst that drove the market down but a sequence of events creating a perfect storm for the equities to go down.
Index
Q1 2018
Q2 2018
Q3 2018
Q3 YTD 2018
Oct – Nov 2018
Nov 2018 YTD
S&P 500 Large-Cap (SPY)
-1.00%
3.55%
7.65%
10.37%
-4.91%
5.45%
S&P 600 Small-Cap (IJR)
0.57%
8.69%
4.87%
14.64%
-9.54%
5.09%
MSCI EAFE (VEA)
-0.90%
-1.96%
1.23%
-1.62%
-7.06%
-8.68%
Barclays US Aggregate Bond (AGG)
-1.47%
-0.18%
-0.08%
-1.73%
-0.81%
-2.54%
Gold (GLD)
1.73%
-5.68%
-4.96%
-8.81%
1.39%
-7.42%
Source: Morningstar
1. Share buybacks
The month of October is earnings season. Companies are not allowed to buy back shares as they announce their earnings. The rationale is that they possess significant insider information that could influence the market in each direction. As it turned out, 2018 was a big year for share buybacks. Earlier in the year, S&P estimated $1 trillion worth of share buybacks to be returned to shareholders. So, in October, the market lost a big buyer – the companies who were buying their own shares. And no one stepped in to take their place.
The explosion of share buyback was prompted by the TCJA law last year which lowered the tax rate of US companies from 35% to 21%. Additionally, the new law imposed a one-time tax on pre-2018 profits of foreign affiliates at rates of 15.5% for cash and 8% for non-cash assets. Within a few months, many US mega-cap corporations brought billions of cash from overseas and became buyers of their stock.
2. High valuations
With the bull market is going on its ninth year, equity valuations remain high even after the October market selloff.
Currently, the S&P 500 is trading at 22.2, above the average level of 15.7. Its dividend yield is 1.9%, well below the historical average of 4.34%.
Furthermore, the current Shiller PE Ratio stands at 30.73, one of the highest levels in history. While the traditional Price to Earnings ratio is calculated based on current or estimated earning levels, the Schiller ratio calculates average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous ten years. The ratio is also known as the Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (CAPE Ratio) or PE10.
While a coordinated global growth and low-interest rate environment had previously supported the thesis that high valuation ratios were justified, this may not be the case for much longer.
3. The divergence between US and international stocks
The performance of International Developed and Emerging Market remains disappointing. While the US markets are still in positive territory, International Developed and EM stocks have plunged by -8% and -15% respectively so far in 2018. Higher tariffs imposed by the US, negative Brexit news, growing domestic debt in China, and slower GDP growth in both the Eurozone and China have spurred fears of an upcoming recession. Despite attractive valuations, international markets remain in correction territory, The dividend yield of MSCI EAFE is 3.34%, while MSCI EM is paying 2.5%, both higher than 1.9% for S&P 500.
4. The gap between growth and value stocks
The performance gap between growth and value stocks is still huge. Growths stocks like Apple, Amazon, Google, Visa, MasterCard, UnitedHealth, Boeing, Nvidia, Adobe, Salesforce, and Netflix have delivered 10% return so far this year. At the same time value strategies dominated by Financials, Consumer Staples and Energy companies are barely breaking even.
Index
Q1 2018
Q2 2018
Q3 2018
Q3 YTD 2018
Oct – Nov 2018
Nov 2018 YTD
P/E Ratio
S&P 500 Large Cap Growth (IVW)
1.81%
5.17%
9.25%
16.97%
-6.95%
10.01%
29.90
S&P 500 Large Cap Value (IVE)
-3.53%
1.38%
5.80%
3.26%
-2.59%
0.67%
19.44
5. Tempering earnings growth
So far in Q3 2018, 90% of the companies have announced earnings. 78% of them have reported better than expected actual earnings with an average earnings growth rate of 25.2%. 61% of the companies have reported a positive sales surprise. However, 58 companies in the S&P 500 (12%) have issued negative earnings guidance for Q4 2018. And the list of stocks that tumbled due to cautious outlook keeps growing – JP Morgan, Facebook, Home Depot, Sysco, DR Horton, United Rentals, Texas Instruments, Carvana, Zillow, Shake Shack, Skyworks Solutions, Michael Kors, Oracle, GE, Cerner, Activision, etc.
Despite the high consumer optimism and growing earnings, most companies’ CFOs are taking a defensive approach. Business investment grew at a 0.8% annual rate in the third quarter, down from 8.7% in the second quarter. This was the slowest pace since the fourth quarter of 2016.
The investment bank Nomura also came out with the forecast expecting global growth to slow down. Their economists predicted that global growth in 2019 would hit 3.7% and temper to 3.5% in 2020 from 3.9% in 2018. According to Nomura, the drivers for the slowdown include waning fiscal stimulus in the U.S., tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, increased supply constraints and elevated risk of a partial government shutdown.
6. Inflation is creeping up
Almost a decade since the Credit Crisis in 2008-2009, inflation has been hovering below 2%. However, in 2018, the inflation has finally made a comeback. In September 2018, monthly inflation was 2.3% down from 2.9% in July and 2.7% in August.
One winner of the higher prices is the consumer staples like Procter & Gamble, Unilever, and Kimberly-Clark. Most of these companies took advantage of higher consumer confidence and rising wages to pass the cost of higher commodity prices to their customers.
7. Higher interests are starting to bite
After years of near-zero levels, interest rates are starting to go higher. 10-year treasury rate reached 3.2%, while the 2-year rate is slowly approaching the 3% level. While savers are finally beginning to receive a decent interest on their cash, CDs and saving accounts, higher interest rates will hurt other areas of the economy.
With household debt approaching $13.4 trillion, borrowers will pay higher interest for home, auto and student loans and credit card debt. At the same time, US government debt is approaching $1.4 trillion. Soon, the US government will pay more for interest than it is spending on the military. The total annual interest payment will hit $390 billion next year, nearly 50 percent more than in 2017, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
The higher interest rates are hurting the Financial sectors. Most big banks have enjoyed a long period of paying almost nothing on their client deposits and savings accounts. The rising interest rates though have increased the competition from smaller banks and online competitors offering attractive rates to their customers.
We are also monitoring the spread between 2 and 10-year treasury note, which is coming very close together. The scenario when two-year interest rates go above ten-year rates causes an inverted yield curve, which has often signaled an upcoming recession.
8. The housing market is slowing down
Both existing and new home sales have come down this year. Rising interest rates, higher cost of materials, labor shortage and high real estate prices in major urban areas have led to a housing market slow down. Existing home sales dropped 3.4% in September coming down for six months in a row this year. New building permits are down 5.5% over 2017.
Markets have taken a negative view on the housing market. As a result, most homebuilders are trading at a 52-week low.
9. Fear of trade war
Some 33% of the public companies have mentioned tariffs in their earnings announcements in Q3. 9% of them have negatively mentioned tariffs. According to the chart below, Industrials, Information Technology, Consumer Dictionary, and Materials are the leading sectors showing some level of concern about tariffs.
10. Strong dollar
Fed’s hiking of interest rates in the US has not been matched by its counterparts in the Eurozone, the UK, and Japan. The German 10-year bund now yields 0.4%, while Japanese 10-year government bond pays 0.11%. Combining the higher rates with negative Brexit talks, Italian budget crisis and trade war fears have led to a strong US dollar reaching a 17-month high versus other major currencies.
Given that 40% of S&P 500 companies’ revenue comes from foreign countries, the strong dollar is making Americans goods and services more expensive and less competitive abroad. Furthermore, US companies generating earnings in foreign currency will report lower US-dollar denominated numbers.
11. Consumer debt is at a record high
The US consumer debt is reaching 4 trillion dollars. Consumer debt includes non-mortgage debts such as credit cards, personal loans, auto loans, and student loans. Student loans are equal to $1.5 trillion while auto debt is $1.1 trillion and credit card debt is close to $1.05 trillion. Furthermore, the US housing dent also hit a record high. In June, the combined mortgage and home equity debt were equal to $9.43 trillion, according to the NY Fed.
The rising debt has been supported by low delinquencies, high property values, rising wages, and low unemployment. However, a slowdown in the economy and the increasing inflation and interest rates can hurt US consumer spending.
12. High Yield and BBB-rated debt is growing
The size of the US corporate debt market has reached $7.5 trillion. The size of the BBB rated debt now exceeds 50% of the entire investment grade market. The BBB-rated debt is just one notch above junk status. Bloomberg explains that, in 2000, when BBB bonds were a mere third of the market, net leverage (total debt minus cash and short-term investments divided by earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) was 1.7 times. By the end of last year, the ratio had ballooned to 2.9 times. Source: Bloomberg
Further on, the bond powerhouse PIMCO commented: “This suggests a greater tolerance from the credit rating agencies for higher leverage, which in turn warrants extra caution when investing in lower-rated IG names, especially in sectors where earnings are more closely tied to the business cycle.”
13. Oil remains volatile
After reaching $74.15 per barrel in October, US crude oil tumbled to $55, a 24% drop. While lower crude prices are pushing down on inflation, they are hurting energy companies, which are already trading in value territory.
According to WSJ, the oil’s rapid decline is fueling fears for global oversupply and slowing economic growth. Furthermore, the outlook for supply and demand shifted last month as top oil producers, began ramping up output to offset the expected drop in Iranian exports. However, earlier this month Washington decided to soften its sanctions on Iran and grant waivers to some buyers of Iranian crude—driving oil prices down. Another factor pushing down on oil was the strong dollar.
14. Global political uncertainty
The Brexit negotiations, Italian budget crisis, Trump’s threats to pull out of WTO, the EU immigrant crisis, higher tariffs, new elections in Brazil, Malaysian corruption scandal and alleged Saudi Arabia killing of a journalist have kept the global markets on their toes. Foreign markets have underperformed the US since the beginning of the year with no sign of hope coming soon.
15. The US Election results
A lot has been said about the US elections results, so I will not dig in further. In the next two year, we will have a divided Congress. The Democrats will control the house, while the Republicans will control the Senate and the executive branch. The initial market reaction was positive. Most investors are predicting a gridlock with no major legislature until 2020. Furthermore, we could have intense budget negotiations and even another government shutdown. Few potential areas where parties could try to work together are infrastructure and healthcare. However, any bi-partisan efforts might be clouded by the upcoming presidential elections and Mueller investigation results.
In Conclusion
There is never a right time to get in the market, start investing and saving for retirement. While market volatility will continue to prevail the news, there is also an opportunity for diligent investors to capitalize on their long-term view and patience. For these investors, it is essential to diversify and rebalance your portfolio.
In the near term, consumer confidence in the economy remains strong. Rising wages and low unemployment will drive consumer spending. My prediction is that we will see a record high shopping season. Many of these fifteen headwinds will remain. Some will soften while others will stay in the headlines.
If you have any questions about your existing investment portfolio or how to start investing for retirement and other financial goals, reach out to me at [email protected] or +925-448-9880.
You can also visit our Insights page where you can find helpful articles and resources on how to make better financial and investment decisions.
About the author:
Stoyan Panayotov, CFA is the founder and CEO of Babylon Wealth Management, a fee-only investment advisory firm based in Walnut Creek, CA. Babylon Wealth Management offers personalized wealth management and financial planning services to individuals and families. To learn more visit our Private Client Services page here. Additionally, we offer Outsourced Chief Investment Officer services to professional advisors (RIAs), family offices, endowments, defined benefit plans, and other institutional clients. To find out more visit our OCIO page here.
Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Nothing in this article should be construed as a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, to buy or sell any security. The content of this article is a sole opinion of the author and Babylon Wealth Management. The opinion and information provided are only valid at the time of publishing this article. Investing in these asset classes may not be appropriate for your investment portfolio. If you decide to invest in any of the instruments discussed in the posting, you have to consider your risk tolerance, investment objectives, asset allocation, and overall financial situation. Different investors have different financial circumstances, and not all recommendations apply to everybody. Seek advice from your investment advisor before proceeding with any investment decisions. Various sources may provide different figures due to variations in methodology and timing,
The US stock market was on an absolute tear this summer. S&P 500 went up by 7.65% and completed its best 3rd quarter since 2013. Despite the February correction, the US stocks managed to recover from the 10% drop. All major indices reached a series of record highs at the end of August and September.
Index
Q1 2018
Q2 2018
Q3 2018
YTD 2018
S&P 500 Large-Cap (SPY)
-1.00%
3.55%
7.65%
10.37%
S&P 600 Small-Cap (IJR)
0.57%
8.69%
4.87%
14.64%
MSCI EAFE (VEA)
-0.90%
-1.96%
1.23%
-1.62%
Barclays US Aggregate Bond (AGG)
-1.47%
-0.18%
-0.08%
-1.73%
Gold (GLD)
1.73%
-5.68%
-4.96%
-8.81%
Source: Morningstar
The US Economy remains strong
Markets have largely shrugged off the trade war fears benefiting from a strong economy and high corporate earnings.
US Unemployment remains low at 3.9% in July and August, levels not seen since the late 1960s and 2000.
Consumer sentiment is at a multi-year high. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index hit 100.1 in September, passing 100 for the third time since the January of 2004.
Business optimism hit another record high in August. The National Federation of Independent Business’ small business optimism index reached the highest level in the survey’s 45-year history. According to NFIB, small business owners are planning to hire more workers, raise compensation for current employees, add inventory, and spend more on capital investments.
A hypothetical 60/40 portfolio
A hypothetical 60/40 index portfolio consisting of 30% US Large Cap Stocks, 10% US Small Cap Stocks, 20% International Stocks, 33% US Fixed Income and 7% Gold would have returned 3.06% by the end of September.
Index
Allocation
Return
S&P 500
30%
3.11%
S&P 600
10%
1.46%
MSCI EAFE
20%
-0.32%
Barclays USAgg Bond
33%
-0.57%
Gold
7%
-0.62%
Hypothetical Performance
3.06%
US Equity
I expect a strong Q4 of 2018 with a record high holiday consumer and business spending. While stock valuations remain elevated, robust revenue and consumer demand will continue to drive economic growth.
After lagging large-cap stocks in 2017, small-cap stocks are having a comeback in 2018. Many domestically focused publicly traded businesses benefited massively from the recent corporate tax cuts, higher taxes on imported goods and healthy domestic demand.
This year’s rally was primarily driven by Technology, Healthcare and Consumer Discretionary stocks, up 20.8%, 16.7%, and 13.7% respectively. However, other sectors like Materials, Real Estate, Consumer Staples, Financials and Utilities are either flat or negative for the year. Keep in mind of the recent reshuffle in the sector classification where Google, Facebook, Netflix and Twitter along with the old telecommunication stocks were added to a new sector called Communication services.
Sector performance
Sector
Performance
Price per
Price to
Dividend
YTD
Earnings
Sales
Yield
as of 10/3/2018
(TTM)
(TTM)
(%)
Communication Services
-1.91%
22.6x
1.3x
4.83%
Consumer Discretionary
13.72%
16.5x
1.0x
1.27%
Consumer Staples
-5.50%
15.1x
1.0x
2.86%
Energy
8.67%
14.0x
1.2x
1.74%
Financials
0.29%
15.2x
2.1x
1.91%
Health Care
16.71%
18.2x
1.2x
1.86%
Industrials
4.73%
15.7x
1.1x
1.85%
Information Technology
20.86%
14.8x
2.1x
0.90%
Materials
-3.56%
13.2x
1.1x
1.79%
Utilities
0.77%
17.1x
1.3x
3.70%
Source: Bloomberg
I believe that we are in the last few innings of the longest bull market. However, a wide range of sectors and companies that have largely remained on the sidelines. Some of them could potentially benefit from the continued economic growth and low tax rates.
International Equity
The performance gap between US and foreign stocks continues to grow. After a negative Q1 and Q2, foreign stocks recouped some of the losses in Q3. Furthermore, emerging market stocks are down close to -9% for the year.
Bad economic data coming from Turkey, Italy, Argentina, Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa, and China along with trade war fears put downward pressure on foreign equity markets. Additionally, rising right-wing sentiments in Italy, Austria, Sweden, Hungary, and even Germany puts doubts on the stability of the European Union and its pro-immigration policies.
In my view, the risk that the financial crisis in Turkey, Argentina, and Italy will spread to other countries is somewhat limited. However, the short-term headwinds remain, and we will continue to monitor these markets.
Brexit
Another major headline for European stocks is the progress of the Brexit negotiation. While soft Brexit would benefit both sides, a hard exit could have a higher negative impact on the UK.
I remain cautiously positive on international stocks. According to WSJ, foreign stocks are trading at a 12% discount over US equity on price to earnings basis. This year created value opportunities in several counters. However, the issue with European and Japanese stocks is not so much in valuations but the search for growth catalysts in conservative economies with an aging population.
Fixed Income
Rising Fed rates and higher inflation have driven bond prices lower so far this year. With inflation rate hovering at 2%, strong employment figures, rising commodity cost, and robust GDP growth, the Fed will continue to hike interest rates. I am expecting one more rate hike in December and three additional hikes in 2019.
I will also continue to monitor the spread between 2-year and 10-year treasury. This spread is currently at 0.23%, the lowest level since 2005. Normally, a negative spread, i..e 2-year treasury rare higher than 10-year is a sign of a troubled economy.
While modest, individual pockets of the fixed-income market are generating positive performance this year. For instance, short duration fixed income products are now yielding in the range of 1.5% to 2%. The higher interest is now a compelling reason for many investors to keep some of their holdings in cash, CDs or short-term instruments.
With 10-year treasury closing above 3% and moving higher, fixed income investors will continue to see soft returns on their portfolio.
Gold
Gold is one of the big market losers this year. The strong dollar and robust US economy have led to the precious metal sell-off. While the rise cryptocurrency might have reduced some of the popularity of Gold, I still believe that a small position in Gold can offer a buffer and reduce the overall long-term portfolio volatility. The investors tend to shift to Gold during times of uncertainty.
Navigating market highs
With S&P 500, NASDAQ and Dow Jones hitting all-time highs, how should investors manage their portfolio?
Rebalance
End of the year is an excellent opportunity for reconciliation and rebalancing to your target asset allocation. S&P 500 has returned 16.65% in the past five years, and the chance that equities are taking a big chunk of your portfolio is very high. Realizing some long-term gains and reinvesting your proceeds into other asset classes will ensure that your portfolio is reset to your desired risk tolerance level as well as adequately diversified.
Think long-term
In late January and early February, we experienced a market sell-offs while S&P 500 dropped more than 10%. Investors in the index who did not panic and sold at the bottom recouped their losses and ended up with 10% return as of September 30, 2018. Taking a long-term view will help you avoid the stress during market downturns and allow you to have a durable long-term strategy
If you have any questions about your existing investment portfolio or how to start investing for retirement and other financial goals, reach out to me at [email protected] or +925-448-9880.
You can also visit our Insights page where you can find helpful articles and resources on how to make better financial and investment decisions.
About the author:
Stoyan Panayotov, CFA is the founder and CEO of Babylon Wealth Management, a fee-only investment advisory firm based in Walnut Creek, CA. Babylon Wealth Management offers personalized wealth management and financial planning services to individuals and families. To learn more visit our Private Client Services page here. Additionally, we offer Outsourced Chief Investment Officer services to professional advisors (RIAs), family offices, endowments, defined benefit plans, and other institutional clients. To find out more visit our OCIO page here.
Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Nothing in this article should be construed as a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, to buy or sell any security. The content of this article is a sole opinion of the author and Babylon Wealth Management. The opinion and information provided are only valid at the time of publishing this article. Investing in these asset classes may not be appropriate for your investment portfolio. If you decide to invest in any of the instruments discussed in the posting, you have to consider your risk tolerance, investment objectives, asset allocation and overall financial situation. Different investors have different financial circumstances, and not all recommendations apply to everybody. Seek advice from your investment advisor before proceeding with any investment decisions. Various sources may provide different figures due to variations in methodology and timing,
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) voted by Congress in late 2017 introduced significant changes to the way high net worth individuals and families file and pay their taxes. The key changes included the doubling of the standard deduction to $12,000 for singles and $24,000 for married couples filing jointly, the elimination of personal exemptions, limiting the SALT deduction to $10,000, limiting the home mortgage interest deduction to loans of up to $750,000 versus $1,000,000 as well as comprehensive changes to itemized deductions and Alternative Minimum Tax.
Many high net worth individuals and families, especially from high tax states like California, New York, and New Jersey, will see substantial changes in their tax returns. The real impact won’t be completely revealed until the first tax filing in 2019. Many areas remain ambiguous and will require further clarification by the IRS.
Most strategies discussed in this article were popular even before the TCJA. However, their use will vary significantly from person to person. I strongly encourage you to speak with your accountant, tax advisor, or investment advisor to better address your concerns.
1. Home mortgage deduction
While a mortgage tax deduction is rarely the primary reason to buy a home, many new home buyers will have to be mindful of the new tax rule limiting mortgage deductions to loans of up to $750,000. The interest on second home mortgages is no longer tax-deductible. The interest on Home Equity Loans or HELOCs could be tax-deductible in some instances where proceeds are utilized to acquire or improve a property
2. Get Incorporated
If you own a business, you may qualify for a 20 percent deduction for qualified business income. This break is available to pass-through entities, including S-corporations and limited liability companies. In general, to qualify for the full deduction, your taxable income must be below $157,500 if you’re single or $315,000 if you’re married and file jointly. Beyond those thresholds, the TJLA sets limits on what professions can qualify for this deduction. Entrepreneurs with service businesses — including doctors, attorneys, and financial advisors — may not be able to take advantage of the deduction if their income is too high.
Furthermore, if you own a second home, you may want to convert it to a rental and run it as a side business. This could allow you to use certain tax deductions that are otherwise not available.
Running your business from home is another way to deduct certain expenses (internet, rent, phone, etc.). In our digital age, technology makes it easy to reach out to potential customers and run a successful business out of your home office.
3. Charitable donations
All contributions to religious, educational, or charitable organizations approved by the IRS are tax-deductible. The annual limit is 50% of your AGI (aggregate gross income) for most donations and 30% of AGI for appreciated assets.
While most often people choose to give money, you can also donate household items, clothes, cars, airline miles, investments, and real estate. The fair value of the donated items decreases your taxable income and therefore will reduce the amount of taxes due to IRS.
The TCJA made the tax planning for donations a little bit trickier. The new tax rules raised the standard deduction to $12,000 for singles and $24,000 for married couples filing jointly. In effect, the rule will reduce the number of people who are itemizing their taxes and make charitable donations a less attractive tax strategy.
For philanthropic high net worth individuals making charitable donations could require a little more planning to achieve the highest possible tax benefit. One viable strategy is to consolidate annual contributions into a single large payment. This strategy will ensure that your donations will go above the yearly standard deduction threshold.
Another approach is to donate appreciated investments, including stocks and real estate. This strategy allows philanthropic investors to avoid paying significant capital gain tax on low-cost basis investments. To learn more about the benefits of charitable donations, check out my prior post here.
4. Gifts
The TCJA doubled the gift and estate tax exemption to almost $11.18 million per person and $22.36 per married couple. Furthermore, you can give up to $15,000 to any number of people every year without any tax implications. Amounts over $15,000 are subject to the combined gift and estate tax exemption of $11 million. You can give your child or any person within the annual limits without creating create any tax implications.
Making a gift will not reduce your current year taxes. However, making gifts of appreciated assets with a lower cost basis can be a way to manage your future tax payments and pass on the tax bill to family members who pay a lower tax rate.
5. 529 Plans
The TCJA of 2017 expanded the use of 529 plans to cover qualifying expenses for private, public, and religious kindergarten through 12th grade. Previously parents and grandparents could only use 529 funds for qualified college expenses.
The use of 529 plans is one of the best examples of how gifts can minimize your future tax burden. Parents and grandparents can contribute up to $15,000 annually per person, $30,000 per married couple into their child college education fund. The plan even allows a one–time lump-sum payment of $75,000 (5 years x $15,000).
Parents can choose to invest their contributions through a variety of investment vehicles. While 529 contributions are not tax-deductible on a federal level, many states like New York, Massachusetts, Illinois, etc. allow for state tax deductions for up to a certain amount. The 529 investments grow tax-free. Withdrawals are also tax-free when used to pay cover qualified college and educational expenses.
6. 401k Contributions
One of the most popular tax deductions is the tax-deferred contribution to 401k and 403b plans. In 2020 the allowed maximum contribution per person is $19,500 plus an additional $6,500 catch-up for investors at age 50 and older. Also, your employer can contribute up to $36,500 for a maximum annual contribution of $57,000 or $63,500 if you are older than 50.
The contributions to your retirement plan are tax-deductible. They decrease your taxable income if you use itemized deductions on your tax filing form. Not only that, but the investments in your 401k portfolio also grow tax-free. You will owe taxes upon withdrawal at your current tax rate at that time.
7. Roth IRA
Roth IRA is a great investment vehicle. Investors can contribute up to $6,000 per year. All contributions to the account are after-tax. The investments in the Roth IRA can grow tax-free. And the withdrawals will be tax-exempt if held till retirement. IRS has limited the direct contributions to individuals making up to $124,000 per year with a phase-out at $139,000. Married couples can make contributions if their income is up to $196,000 per year with a phase-out at $206,000.
Fortunately, recent IRS rulings made it possible for high net worth individuals to make Roth Contributions. Using the two-step process known as backdoor Roth you can take advantage of the long-term tax-exempt benefits of Roth IRA. Learn more about Roth IRA in our previous post here.
8. Health Spending Account
A health savings account (HSA) is a tax-exempt saving account available to taxpayers who are enrolled in a high-deductible health plan (HDHP) The funds contributed to this account are tax-deductible. Unlike a flexible spending account (FSA), HSA funds roll over and accumulate year over year if not spent. HSA owners can use the funds to pay for qualified medical expenses at any time without tax liability or penalty. The annual contribution limits for 2018 are $3,450 per person, $6,900 per family, and an additional $1,000 if 55 or older. The owner of HSA can invest the funds similar to the IRA account.
In effect, HSAs have a triple tax benefit. All contributions are tax-deductible. Investments grow tax-free and. HSA owners can make tax-free withdrawals for qualified medical expenses.
9. Municipal bonds
Old fashioned municipal bonds continue to be an attractive investment choice of high net worth individuals. The interest income from municipal bonds is still tax-exempt on a federal level. When the bondholders reside in the same state as the bond issuer, they can be exempted from state income taxes as well.
Final words
If you have any questions about your existing investment portfolio, reach out to me at [email protected] or +925-448-9880.
You can also visit our Insights page where you can find helpful articles and resources on how to make better financial and investment decisions.
After a record high 2017, the volatility has finally returned. Last year the market experienced one of the highest risk-adjusted performances in recent history. In 2017 there were only 10 trading where the S&P 500 moved by more than 1% in either direction, with not a single trading day when it moved by more than 2%. In contrast, in the 61 trading days of Q1 of 2018, we had 26 days when the S&P 500 moved by more than 1% and 8 days where it changed by more than 2%.
The VIX Index, which measures the volatility of the S&P 500 started the year ar 9.77. It peaked at 37.33 and ended the quarter at 19.97.
Markets do not like uncertainty, and so far, Q1 had plenty of that. In the first 3 months of the year market landscape was dominated by news about rising inflation and higher interest rates, the Toys R Us bankruptcy, trade war talks and tariffs against China, and scandals related to Facebook user data privacy.
Except for Gold, all major market indices finished in the negative territory.
Index
Q1 2018
S&P 500
-1.00%
Russell 2000
-0.18%
MSCI EAFE
-0.90%
Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index
-1.47%
Gold
+1.73%
Fixed Income
Traditionally bonds have served as an anchor for equity markets. Over time stocks and US Treasury bond have shown a negative correlation. Usually, bonds would rise when stocks prices are falling as investors are moving to safer investments. However, in 2018 we observed a weakening of this relationship. There were numerous trading days when stocks and bonds were moving in the same direction.
On the other hand, despite rising interest rates, we see the lowest 10-year/2-year treasury spread since the October of 2007. The spread between the two treasury maturities was 0.47 as of March 29, 2018. While not definite, historically negative or flat spreads have preceded an economic recession.
Momentum
Momentum remained one of the most successful strategies of 2018 and reported +2.97%. Currently, this strategy is dominated by Technology, Financials, Industrials, and Consumer Cyclical stocks. Some of the big names include Microsoft, JP Morgan, Amazon, Intel, Bank of America, Boeing, CISCO, and Mastercard.
Value
Value stocks continued to disappoint and reported -3.73% return in the Q1 of 2018. Some of the biggest names in this strategy like Exxon Mobile, Wells Fargo, AT&T, Chevron, Verizon, Citigroup, Johnson & Johnson, DowDuPont and Wall-Mart fell close to or more than -10%. As many of these companies are high dividend payers, rising interest rates have decreased the interest of income-seeking investors in this segment of the market.
Small Cap
As small-cap stocks stayed on the sideline of the last year’s market rally, they were mostly unaffected by the recent market volatility. Given that most small-cap stocks derive their revenue domestically, we expect them to benefit significantly from the lower tax rates and intensified trade war concerns.
Gold
Gold remained a solid investment choice in the Q1 of 2018. It was one of the few asset classes that reported modest gains. If the market continues to b volatile, we anticipate more upside potential for Gold.
Outlook
We anticipate that the market volatility will continue in the second quarter until many of the above issues get some level of clarification or resolution.
We expect that small and large-cap stocks with a strong domestic focus to benefit from the trade tariffs tension with China and other international partners
The actual impact of lower taxes on corporate earnings will be revealed in the second half of 2018 as Q3 and Q4 earnings will provide a clear picture of earnings net of accounting and tax adjustments.
Strong corporate earnings and revenue growth have the ability to decrease the current market volatility. However, weaker than expected earnings can have a dramatically opposite effect and drive down the already unstable markets.
If the Fed continues to hike their short-term lending rates and inflation rises permanently above 2%, we could see a further decline in bond prices.
Our strategy is to remain diversified across asset classes and focus on long-term risk-adjusted performance
If you have any questions about your existing investment portfolio or how to start investing for retirement and other financial goals, reach out to me at [email protected] or +925-448-9880.
About the author:
Stoyan Panayotov, CFA is the founder and CEO of Babylon Wealth Management, a fee-only investment advisory firm based in Walnut Creek, CA. Babylon Wealth Management offers personalized wealth management and financial planning services to individuals and families. To learn more visit our Private Client Services page here. Additionally, we offer Outsourced Chief Investment Officer services to professional advisors (RIAs), family offices, endowments, defined benefit plans, and other institutional clients. To find out more visit our OCIO page here.
Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Nothing in this article should be construed as a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, to buy or sell any security. The content of this article is a sole opinion of the author and Babylon Wealth Management. The opinion and information provided are only valid at the time of publishing this article. Investing in these asset classes may not be appropriate for your investment portfolio. If you decide to invest in any of the instruments discussed in the posting, you have to consider your risk tolerance, investment objectives, asset allocation and overall financial situation. Different investors have different financial circumstances, and not all recommendations apply to everybody. Seek advice from your investment advisor before proceeding with any investment decisions. Various sources may provide different figures due to variations in methodology and timing,
Wall Street is gearing for another record year on the equity market. On January 2nd Nasdaq crossed 7,000. A day later S&P 500 reached 2,700. Dow Jones followed by passing over 25,000. Who can ask for a better start?
However, with S&P 500 earning +22% and Nasdaq gaining 32% in 2017, many are wondering if the equity market has any fuel left for another big run. With momentum on its side, the recent corporate tax cuts, and president’s promises for deregulation we have the foundation for another record high year. But not everything is perfect. In times of market euphoria, investors tend to ignore warning signals.
Surely, there is no shortage of potential threats that can trigger another significant market correction or an economic recession. In my view, here are the biggest risks for the market in 2018 and beyond.
With the start of the year, both Republicans and Democrats are gearing for a battle as the current government funding bill expires on January 19.
Republicans are invigorated after winning their most important battle of 2017. The GOP voted for the most extensive tax overhaul in 30 years which promises to cut taxes for corporations and middle class but also introduces additional $1.5 trillion to the budget deficit in 10 years without counting for growth. Their 2018 agenda includes cutting entitlements, building a border wall, financing a new infrastructure plan, increasing the military budget and maybe repealing Obamacare.
On the opposite end, after their win in the Alabama senate race, Democrats are slowly recovering from their knockdown phase after the US 2016 Presidential election. Democrats will try to push their agenda on the Dreamers Act and save the government healthcare subsidies.
With a slim Senate majority and traitorous rifts inside the party, the GOP will have a hard time passing any significant legislation. The Senate leadership already expressed their desire to work with Democrats on the next bill on avoiding a government shutdown. While the public may appreciate a bi-partisan agreement, both parties have shown an enormous resistance to compromise on any level.
Geopolitical crisis
There is a growing number of geopolitical threats that can compromise the global growth. The world is becoming a treacherous place where one miscalculation can lead to a human disaster. From cyber-war with Russia to nuclear tension with North Korea, ongoing unrest in the Middle East, shutting down NAFTA, populist governments taking over Europe, and hard Brexit negotiations.
China is looking to fill the vacuum left by the US after scrapping the Trans-Pacific Trade Agreement. Russia and President Putin want to play a bigger role in the world affairs. The remnants of ISIS are spread around the world and planning the next terrorist attack. The 16-year war in Afghanistan is still going with no resolution in sight. The tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia is on its highest level for years. The president must maneuver carefully in the dangerous waters of world politics where governments are becoming more and more protectionist and populist.
Health Care Chaos
The GOP was unsuccessful in repealing the Affordable Care Act. However, they were able to remove the individual mandate as part of the recent tax cut bill.
With the penalty going away in 2019, there will be no incentive for healthier individuals to sign up for health insurance. Furthermore, this will lead to a lower number of insured participants and drive higher their cost of health care.
US has already the most expensive health care among all OECD counties. The average cost per individual in the USA is $10,000 versus $6,700 for Switzerland and $5,100k for Germany. The Congress and Senate must find a solution to address the climbing health care cost. The alternative will lead to more healthy people dropping from the system, skyrocketing medical bills, social unrest, and even economic slowdown.
Retail meltdown
US retail is in danger. In 2017, 19 retailers including Toys R US, Aerosoles, Perfumania, True Religions and Gymboree filed for bankruptcy protection. Many others like Teavana, Bebe, and Kenneth Cole closed all their physical locations to focus on online expansion. Despite rising consumer confidence and record-high holiday shopping spree, traditional brick-and-mortar retailers are struggling to stay afloat.
Apart from a few big names, US retailers are loaded with debt. According to Bloomberg, $100 million of high-yield retail debt was set to mature in 2017. Furthermore, this figure will rise to $1.9 billion in 2018 and will average $5 billion between 2019 to 2025. With rising interest rates and permanent drift towards online shopping, many retailers will continue to close down unprofitable locations. Local economies relying heavily on retail jobs will suffer high unemployment rates in the coming years.
Consumer debt crunch
The US household debt has reached $13 trillion in the third quarter of 2017, according to the New York Fed. Driven by low-interest rates, the mortgage debt increased to $8.7 trillion. Student debt has reached $1.36 trillion. Auto loan debt is $1.2 trillion. While mortgage delinquencies are stable at 1.2%, bad auto loans have risen to 2.4%, and student debt delinquencies have reached 9.6%. The rising interest rates can lead to more people failing on their loans, which can potentially trigger another crisis similar to 2008.
Interest hikes and hyperinflation
The US fed is planning for three rate hikes in 2018. Oil has slowly passed $60 a barrel. And US dollar reached 1.20 against the euro. Moreover, U.S. manufacturing expanded in 2017, as gains in orders and production capped the strongest year for factories since 2004. While around the world factories have warned they are finding it increasingly hard to keep up with demand, potentially forcing them to raise prices.
While CPI hovers around 1.7%, global markets have not priced in the prospects for higher inflation. Therefore, unexpected spike in prices can lead to more Fed rate hikes.
Additionally, the lost corporate tax revenue can jeopardize the ability of the US Treasury to issue debt at lower rates, which can drive the budget deficit even further. Historically, uncontrolled inflation combined with growing budget deficit has led to periods of hyperinflation, higher credit cost and loss of purchasing power.
Retirement savings going down
Only half of US families have a retirement account. The 401k plan patriation is only 43%. Of those with retirement savings, the average balance is just $60,000. Social Security ran $39 billion deficit in 2014 and will be entirely depleted by 2035.
With rising interest rates and GOP plans to cut entitlements, many Americans will face enormous retirement risk and suffer substantial income loss during their non-working years. Without an urgent reform, the US social security system is a time-ticking bomb that can hurt both businesses and families.
Mueller investigation
The former FBI chief investigation is at full speed as more revelations about the Trump campaign appear almost on a daily basis. You might need a crystal ball to predict what will be the exact outcome. However, it is virtually certain that there were people in the Trump circle who were pursuing their own personal interests. The initial theory of collusion and obstruction of justice is leading to allegations about money laundering. If the Mueller investigation proves those accusations, we could experience a political crisis not seen since Watergate.
About the author: Stoyan Panayotov, CFA is the founder and CEO of Babylon Wealth Management, a fee-only investment advisory firm. Babylon Wealth Management offers highly customized Outsourced Chief Investment Officer services to professional advisors (RIAs), family offices, endowments, defined benefit plans and other institutional clients. To learn more visit our OCIO page here.
Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Nothing in this article should be construed as a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, to buy or sell any security. The content of this article is a sole opinion of the author and Babylon Wealth Management. The opinion and information provided are only valid at the time of publishing this article. Investing in these asset classes may not be appropriate for your investment portfolio. If you decide to invest in any of the instruments discussed in the posting, you have to consider your risk tolerance, investment objectives, asset allocation and overall financial situation. Different investors have different financial circumstances, and not all recommendations apply to everybody. Seek advice from your investment advisor before proceeding with any investment decisions. Various sources may provide different figures due to variations in methodology and timing, Photo copyright: <a href=’https://www.123rf.com/profile_bacho12345′>bacho12345 / 123RF Stock Photo</a>
As we approach 2018, it‘s time to reconcile the past 365 days of 2017. We are sending off a very exciting and tempestuous year. The stock market is at an all-time high. Volatility is at a record low. Consumer spending and confidence have passed pre-recession levels.
I would like to wish all my readers and friends a happy and prosperous 2018. I guarantee you that the coming year will be as electrifying and eventful as the previous one.
The new tax plan
The new tax plan is finally here. After heated debates and speculations, president Trump and the GOP achieved their biggest win of 2017. In late December, they introduced the largest tax overhaul in 30 years. The new plan will reduce the corporate tax rate to 21% and add significant deductions to pass-through entities. It is also estimated to add $1.5 trillion to the budget deficit in 10 years before accounting for economic growth.
The impact on the individual taxes, however, remains to be seen. The new law reduces the State and Local Tax (SALT) deductions to $10,000. Also, it limits the deductible mortgage interest for loans up to $750,000 (from $1m). The plan introduces new tax brackets and softens the marriage penalty for couples making less than $500k a year. The exact scale of changes will depend on a blend of factors including marital status, the number of dependents, state of residency, homeownership, employment versus self-employment status. While most people are expected to receive a tax-break, certain families and individuals from high tax states such as New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and California may see their taxes higher.
Affordable Care Act
The future of Obamacare remains uncertain. The new GOP tax bill removes the individual mandate, which is at the core of the Affordable Care Act. We hope to see a bi-partisan agreement that will address the flaws of ACA and the ever-rising cost of healthcare. However, political battles between republicans and democrats and various fractions can lead to another year of chaos in the healthcare system.
Equity Markets
The euphoria around the new corporate tax cuts will continue to drive the markets in 2018. Many US-based firms with domestic revenue will see a boost in their earnings per share due to lower taxes.
We expect the impact of the new tax law to unfold fully in the next two years. However, in the long run, the primary driver for returns will continue to be a robust business model, revenue growth, and a strong balance sheet.
Momentum
Momentum was the king of the markets in 2017. The strategy brought +38% gain in one of its best years ever. While we still believe in the merits of momentum investing, we are expecting more modest returns in 2018.
Value
Value stocks were the big laggard in 2017 with a return of 15%. While their gain is still above average historical rates, it’s substantially lower than other equity strategies. Value investing tends to come back with a big bang. In the light of the new tax bill, we believe that many value stocks will benefit from the lower corporate rate of 21%. And as S&P 500 P/E continues to hover above historical levels, we could see investors’ attention shifting to stocks with more attractive valuations.
Small Cap
With a return of 14%, small-cap stocks trailed the large and mega-cap stocks by a substantial margin. We think that their performance was negatively impacted by the instability in Washington. As most small-cap stocks derive their revenue domestically, many of them will see a boost in earnings from the lower corporate tax rate and the higher consumer income.
International Stocks
It was the first time since 2012 when International stocks (+25%) outperformed US stocks. After years of sluggish growth, bank crisis, Grexit (which did not happen), Brexit (which will probably happen), quantitative easing, and negative interest rates, the EU region and Japan are finally reporting healthy GDP growth.
It is also the first time in more than a decade that we experienced a coordinated global growth and synchronization between central banks. We hope to continue to see this trend and remain bullish on foreign markets.
Emerging Markets
If you had invested in Emerging Markets 10-years ago, you would have essentially earned zero return on your investments. Unfortunately, the last ten years were a lost decade for EM stocks. We believe that the tide is finally turning. This year emerging markets stocks brought a hefty 30% return and passed the zero mark. With their massive population under 30, growing middle class, and almost 5% annual GDP growth, EM will be the main driver of global consumption.
Fixed Income
It was a turbulent year for fixed income markets. The Fed increased its short-term interest rate three times in 2017 and promised to hike it three more times in 2018. The markets, however, did not respond positively to the higher rates. The yield curve continued to flatten in 2017. And inflation remained under the Fed target of 2%.
After a decade of low interest, the consumer and corporate indebtedness has reached record levels. While the Dodd-Frank Act imposed strict regulations on the mortgage market, there are many areas such as student and auto loans that have hit alarming levels. Our concern is that high-interest rates can trigger high default rates in those areas which can subsequently drive down the market.
Gold
2017 was the best year for gold since 2010. Gold reported 11% return and reached its lowest volatility in 10 years. The shiny metal lost its momentum in Q4 as investors and speculators shifted their attention to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. In our view gold continues to be a solid long-term investment with its low correlation to equities and fixed income assets.
Real Estate
It was a tough year for REITs and real estate in general. While demand for residential housing continues to climb at a modest pace, the retail-linked real estate is suffering permanent losses due to the bankruptcies of several major retailers. This trend is driven on one side by the growing digital economy and another side by the rising interest rates and the struggle of highly-leveraged retailers to refinance their debt. Many small and mid-size retail chains were acquired by Private Equity firms in the aftermath of the 2008-2009 credit crisis. Those acquisitions were financed with low-interest rate debt, which will gradually start to mature in 2019 and peak in 2023 as the credit market continues to tighten.
In the long-run, we expect that most public retail REITs will expand and reposition themselves into the experiential economy by replacing poor performing retailers with restaurants and other forms of entertainment.
On a positive note, we believe that the new tax bill will boost the performance of many US-based real estate and pass-through entities. Under the new law, investors in pass-through entities will benefit from a further 20% deduction and a shortened depreciation schedule.
What to expect in 2018
After passing the new tax bill, the Congress will turn its attention to other topics of its agenda – improving infrastructure, and amending entitlements. Further, we will continue to see more congressional budget deficit battles.
Talk to your CPA and find out how the new bill will impact your taxes.
With markets at a record high, we recommend that you take in some of your capital gains and look into diversifying your portfolio between major asset classes.
We might see a rotation into value and small-cap. However, the market is always unpredictable and can remain such for extended periods.
We will monitor the Treasury Yield curve. In December 2017 the spread between 10-year and 2-year treasury bonds reached a decade low at 50 bps. While not always a flattening yield has often predicted an upcoming recession.
Index and passive investing will continue to dominate as investment talent is evermore scarce. Mega large investment managers like iShares and Vanguard will continue to drop their fees.
You can also visit our Insights page where you can find helpful articles and resources on how to make better financial and investment decisions.
About the author:
Stoyan Panayotov, CFA is the founder and CEO of Babylon Wealth Management, a fee-only investment advisory firm based in Walnut Creek, CA. Babylon Wealth Management offers personalized wealth management and financial planning services to individuals and families. To learn more visit our Private Client Services page here. Additionally, we offer Outsourced Chief Investment Officer services to professional advisors (RIAs), family offices, endowments, defined benefit plans, and other institutional clients. To find out more visit our OCIO page here.
Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Nothing in this article should be construed as a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, to buy or sell any security. The content of this article is a sole opinion of the author and Babylon Wealth Management. The opinion and information provided are only valid at the time of publishing this article. Investing in these asset classes may not be appropriate for your investment portfolio. If you decide to invest in any of the instruments discussed in the posting, you have to consider your risk tolerance, investment objectives, asset allocation and overall financial situation. Different investors have different financial circumstances, and not all recommendations apply to everybody. Seek advice from your investment advisor before proceeding with any investment decisions. Various sources may provide different figures due to variations in methodology and timing,
While the momentum theory has been around for two decades, we had to wait until 2017 to see the rise of momentum investing. The largest momentum ETF (MTUM) is up 35% YTD. And unless something dramatic happens in the remaining few weeks, momentum will crush all major market-cap weighted indices and ETFs.
About this time last year, I posted my first article about momentum investing in Seeking Alpha. You can see my article here. At that time MTUM had only $1.8 billion of AUM and trailed the S&P 500 2016 returns in the range of 5% versus 12%. Eleven months later, MTUM is up 35% versus 16.5%. I can’t take any credit for calling this wide margin in performance, but it certainly grabbed the attention of investors. MTUM is currently at $4.8b AUM and possibly growing even more down the road.
So what is momentum and why do we keep hearing about it a lot more lately?
The momentum investing is a pure behavioral play. Not surprisingly the rise of momentum investing coincided with Richard Thaler’s Nobel award for his work on how human behavior and finance play out together.
Momentum investing exploits the theory that recent stock winners will continue to rise in the near-term. The strategy is based on the 1993 Journal of Finance research “Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency” by Narasimhan Jegadeesh and Sheridan Titman
Their research discovers a pattern that buying stocks that have performed well in the past and selling stocks that have performed poorly generate significant positive returns over 3- to 12-month holding periods. Furthermore, the research discusses that the success of this strategy is due to behavioral finance factors.
Investors commonly overact on the news and therefore overbuy the winners and oversell the losers.
Many investors consider the momentum strategy as a substitute for growth investing. However, the momentum theory embraces both value and growth stocks as long as they have risen in the past 6 to 12 months.
While the momentum theory has been around for over 20 years, the strategy has not received a wide acceptance amongst investors. Despite its academic fundamentals, momentum strategy has experienced contradictory practical interpretations amongst fund managers, which has reported a massive variability of returns.
Fortunately, the growing popularity of market-cap and smart beta ETFs made the momentum strategy widely available to retail investors. Further down, I will discuss how to take advantage of the momentum theory by using MTUM – iShares Edge MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF. This ETF has been around since April 2013. It has a dividend yield of 1.12% and an expense ratio of 0.15%.
MTUM replicates the MSCI USA Momentum Index. MSCI USA Momentum Index uses a multi-step process to filter for stocks that fit the momentum criteria. The composition process starts with selecting companies with the highest 6- and 12- month performance. The performance is later weighted by their 3-year standard deviation and given a momentum score. The final weight in the momentum index is given by multiplying the momentum score by the market capitalization weight in the parent index. In this case, the parent index is MSCI USA Index, which has 616 constituents and covers about 85% of the US market cap. Company weights for MSCI USA Momentum Index are capped at 5%. The index is rebalanced semiannually. However, spikes in market volatility can trigger ad-hoc rebalancing.
Performance and risk
MSCI USA Momentum Index has consistently outperformed MSCI USA and S&P 500 since its inception. The index has achieved a cumulative return of 531% versus 400% for MSCI USA and 423% for S&P 500 since October 2002.
In annualized terms, MSCI USA Momentum Index posted 9.07% 10-year return and 13.65% return since its inception in 1994.
The index beat its parent in 9 out of the past 15 years and underperformed in six – 2003, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2012 and 2016.
It is an interesting observation that the Momentum strategy underperformed in the years following a significant market pullback or sluggish return (02-03, 05-06, 08-09 and 11-12). It takes a two-year cycle for the Momentum Index to start outperforming again after experiencing a negative period. The composition of the index is somewhat reactive, which naturally doesn’t allow it to take advantage of market rallies in specific sectors.
Source: MSCI
Counterintuitively to what some may think, the MSCI Momentum Index has reported lower standard deviation (risk) than its parent index for the past 3-year and slightly higher standard deviation for the 5- and 10-year period. The risk-weighted methodology described earlier helps the index cap its volatility despite high turnover.
Higher returns and capped volatility has allowed the momentum index to report consistently high risk-adjusted returns. Its 10-year Sharpe ratio is 0.59 versus 0.51 for MSCI USA and 0.53 for S&P 500. Since inception, the Momentum Index posted the impressive 0.72 versus 0.54 MSCI USA and S&P 500.
Source: MSCI
MTUM ETF
Going back to the iShares Edge MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF, it has been around since April 2013. Since inception, its performance has been consistent with the index. MTUM posted 17.3% return versus 13.4% for S&P 500 and 15.32% for IWF, Russell 1000 growth ETF.
MTUM has reported a Sharpe ratio of 1.61 vs. 1.33 for S&P 500 and 1.41 for IWF.
Few other interesting facts for investors looking to diversify. The US market correlation is equal to 0.87. Beta is 0.90. Alpha is 4.7%, and R2 is 73.7%. In other words, the momentum strategy achieved its return not only with less risk but a lot lower correlation to the total market, which is critical for portfolio diversification.
MTUM Holdings
Momentum investing is a dynamic strategy with quarterly rebalancing. Due to its 114% turnover, it is extremely cost ineffective for the average retail investor to replicate it
Currently, MTUM overweights Financials, Technology, and Industrials which have primarily driven the market since the beginning of 2017. Simultaneously, the ETF underweights Consumer Cyclical, Utilities, and Energy. Its main holdings include Microsoft, Bank of America, JP Morgan, Apple, United Health Group, NVIDIA, Home Depot, Comcast, and Boeing. Just to illustrate the dynamic nature of this strategy, a year ago its top holdings were in Technology and Utilities with leading names such as Facebook, Amazon, Google, and Nextera.
Final thoughts
The momentum strategy has outperformed the broad market in the past 22 years.
While being in the public eye for over two decades and posting impressive long-term absolute and risk-adjusted returns, the momentum strategy is still not a highly popular trade and has mostly been a theoretical exercise with conflicting practical results.
Only lately, the rise of ETFs had made the strategy available to regular investors.
The momentum strategy tends to lean towards sectors with a recent high
Like any factor strategy, the momentum can underperform the broad market for extended periods
About the author: Stoyan Panayotov, CFA is the founder and CEO of Babylon Wealth Management, a fee-only investment advisory firm. Babylon Wealth Management offers highly customized Outsourced Chief Investment Officer services to professional advisors (RIAs), family offices, endowments, defined benefit plans and other institutional clients. To learn more visit our OCIO page here.
Holdings disclaimer: I own MTUM and we regularly invest MTUM for our clients.
Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Nothing in this article should be construed as a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, to buy or sell any security. The content of this article is a sole opinion of the author and Babylon Wealth Management. The opinion and information provided are only valid at the time of publishing this article. Investing in these asset classes may not be appropriate for your investment portfolio. If you decide to invest in any of the instruments discussed in the posting, you have to consider your risk tolerance, investment objectives, asset allocation and overall financial situation. Different investors have different financial circumstances, and not all recommendations apply to everybody. Seek advice from your investment advisor before proceeding with any investment decisions. Various sources may provide different figures due to variations in methodology and timing,
Emerging Markets are up 26% so far year. But can they sustain the rally?
If you invested in one of the large EM ETFs like EEM (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF) or VWO (Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares) ten years ago, you would have earned nearly zero as of September 29, 2017. At the same time, you would have doubled your money if you invested in S&P 500 (SPY) as long as you stayed put during the market crisis of 2008 – 2009.
So is this just a fluke? Or maybe after a lost decade of volatile price swings, EM stocks are finally ready to turn the page. While we recognize the long-term opportunity in EM, we also understand this could be a bumpy ride.
In the investment world, the countries are divided into three main categories – developed, emerging and frontier. Developed countries include countries with developed capital markets and relatively high GDP per capita. The list consists of USA, Canada, Japan, UK, Australia, Germany, Italy, France and several others. Emerging markets have some similarities with the developed economies including functioning capital markets and a banking system, but they lack certain characteristics including lower market liquidity and transparency. They also have more political influence and less strict accounting standards.
The list of Emerging economies includes Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Qatar, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, and UAE.
Just to make things a little more complicated, FTSE indices classify Korea as a developed economy. However, other index providers such as MSCI and Dow Jones include Korea in the EM group.
What makes the emerging markets an attractive investment?
Economic growth
EM has been characterized by higher growth than most developed economies. According to IMF, emerging markets GDP is expected to grow by an average of 4.7% in 2017. Furthermore, despite the recent slowdown, next year projections are the first time in six years when we see an acceleration in the growth forecast.
For comparison, US GDP is expected to grow at 2.6% in the next two years, while EU is projected at 1.7%.
Also, according to World Bank consumption growth per capita in emerging is expected to grow by an average of 5.5% versus 1.5% for developed markets.
This growth differential provides an opportunity for companies with strong presence in these markets to benefit and increase their revenues as a result of the expected economic growth.
Population trends
According to Euromonitor, developing countries account for 90% of the world population under 30. For instance, the average age of the Philippines is 24, India is 26, Mexico is 27, and Brazil is 31. For comparison, the median age in the USA is 37.2. Japan and Germany are at 46.1. Emerging economies have a young population base which will help them support future economic and consumption growth. In fact, developing markets now account for more than 75% of global growth in output and consumption, almost double their share in just two decades.
Attractive Valuations
With US stocks equities almost fully priced, investors are starting to look for better opportunities abroad. At 16x current price-to-earnings, emerging market equities (EEM) are considerably cheaper than US large cap-equities. For comparison, SPY currently trades at 23.7 times price-to-earnings. Furthermore, Emerging Market price-to-book ratio is 1.63x versus 2.85 for SPY.
Even with the 25% return so far this year, EM stocks are still trading at nearly 50% discount to US large cap stocks. This valuation gap creates opportunities for investors to transfer some of their assets to less expensive assets.
Diversification
For investors looking to diversify some of their risks, EM represents a compelling alternative. EM stocks traditionally have a lower correlation to the US equity markets.
For instance, a broad EM ETF such as EEM has a correlation of 0.80 to the S&P 500, while its R-squared (explained returns) ratio is 62.7%. As a comparison, a US Small Cap stocks (IJR) have a 0.92 correlation ratio and 78.7% R-squared to the large US cap index.
What are some of the risks?
Volatility of returns
Owning EM stocks comes with a lot of risks. The EM equity performance has been inconsistent for the past ten years. $1,000,000 invested in EEM ETF in Jan 1, 2007 would have produced $ 1,005,620 by Dec 2015 and $1,433,727 by Sep 2017. This is the equivalent of 0.06% and 3.45% annualized rate of return. As a comparison, the same one million invested in SPY would have made 1,735,171 in 2015 and 2,215,383 in Sep 2017 or an average of 6.31% and 7.68% respectively.
This return volatility shows the unpredictability and large swings of returns in EM stocks, which brings us to the next point.
Furthermore, investors who are willing to invest in EM have to stomach the higher volatility associated with these stock. To illustrate, EEM has a beta of 1.29 vs. 1 for S&P 500 and 10-year Standard deviation of 24.59% vs. 15.74% for S&P 500. The maximum drawdown of EEM was -60.44% versus -50% for SPY.
Company concentration
A handful of large corporations and conglomerates are consistently dominating all EM country indices. For example, the top 5 holdings in the China Large-Cap index make up 38% of the entire market. In Korea, top 5 companies make up 33%, with Samsung dominating the market with 20%. In India, top 5 companies’ weight is 36%, in Russia, 35% and Mexico, 40%. As a comparison, top 5 stocks in the S&P 500 index (SPY) make up 11% of the total.
This high concentration leaves the Emerging markets exposed to the fortunes of the handful of companies dominating their markets.
Political instability
Another risk associated with emerging economies is their heavy dependence on local politics. Just in the past few years, we saw North Korea nuclear threats, political scandals in Brazil, sanctions against Russia, the war in Syria. Changes in political power or any geopolitical turmoil will significantly impact the emerging economies and their neighbors.
About the author: Stoyan Panayotov, CFA is the founder and CEO of Babylon Wealth Management, a fee-only investment advisory firm. Babylon Wealth Management offers highly customized Outsourced Chief Investment Officer services to professional advisors (RIAs), family offices, endowments, defined benefit plans and other institutional clients. To learn more visit our OCIO page here.
Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Nothing in this article should be construed as a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, to buy or sell any security. The content of this article is a sole opinion of the author and Babylon Wealth Management. The opinion and information provided are only valid at the time of publishing this article. Investing in these asset classes may not be appropriate for your investment portfolio. If you decide to invest in any of the instruments discussed in the posting, you have to consider your risk tolerance, investment objectives, asset allocation and overall financial situation. Different investors have different financial circumstances, and not all recommendations apply to everybody. Seek advice from your investment advisor before proceeding with any investment decisions. Various sources may provide different figures due to variations in methodology and timing, Copyright: www.123rf.com
In my practice, I often meet with small business owners who have the entire life savings and family fortune tied up to their company. For many of them, their business is the only way out to retirement. With this post, I would like to offer 6 saving & investment practices all business owners should follow.
Having all your eggs in one basket, however, may not be the best way to manage your finances and family fortune. Think about bookstores. If you owned one 20-30 years ago, you probably earned a decent living. Now, bookstores are luxuries even in major cities like New York and San Francisco. Technology, markets, consumer sentiments, and laws change all the time. And that is why it is vital that you build healthy saving and investment routines to grow your wealth, protect your loved ones, and prepare yourself for the years during retirement.
Start Early
I always advise my clients to start saving early and make it a habit. Saving 10-20 percent of your monthly income will help you build and grow your wealth. For instance, by starting with $20,000 today, with an average stock market return of 6 percent, your investments can potentially accumulate to $115,000 in 30 years or even $205,000 in 40 years.
Saving and investing early in your career can build a buffer to correct for any sidesteps or slip-ups. Starting to build your wealth early will provide the necessary protection against market drops and economic recessions and prepare you for large purchases like a new home, college tuition, a new car or even expanding your business.
Build a Safety Net
Life can often be unpredictable in good and bad ways. Having an emergency fund is the best way to guard your wealth and maintain liquidity for your business. I typically recommend keeping 6 to 12 months of basic living expenses in your savings account.
Even though my firm does not offer insurance, I often advise my clients especially those who are sole bread earners or work in industries prone to accidents to consider getting life and disability insurance. Good insurance will guarantee protection and supplemental income for yourself and your loved ones in case of unexpected work or life events.
Manage Your Debt
The last eight years of a friendly interest environment has brought record levels of debt in almost every single category. Americans now owe more than $8.26 trillion in mortgages, $1.14 trillion in auto loans, and $747 billion in credit cards debt. If you are like me, you probably don’t like owing money to anyone.
That’s great, however, taking loans is an essential part of any enterprise. Expanding your business, building a new facility or buying a competitor will often require external financing. Keeping track of your loans and prioritizing on paying off your high-interest debt can save you and your business a lot of money. It may also boost your credit score.
Having a company retirement plan is an excellent way to save money in the long run. Plan contributions could reduce current taxes and boost your employees’ loyalty and morale.
Of the many alternatives, I am a big supporter of 401(k) plans. Although they are a little more expensive to establish and run, they provide the highest contribution allowance over all other options.
The maximum employee contribution to 401(k) plans for 2017 is $18,000. The employer can match up to $36,000 for a total of $54,000. Individuals over 50 can add a catch-up contribution of $6,000. Also, 401k and other ERISA Plans offer an added benefit. They have the highest protection to creditors.
Even if you already have an up-and-running 401k plan, your job is not done. Have your plan administrator or an independent advisor regularly review your investment options.
I frequently see old 401k plans that have been ignored and forgotten since they were first established. Some of these plans often contain high-fee mutual funds that have consistently underperformed their benchmarks for many consecutive years. I typically recommend replacing some of these funds with low-fee alternatives like index funds and ETFs. Paying low fees will keep more money in your pocket.
Diversify
Many business owners hold a substantial amount of their wealth locked in their business. By doing so, they expose themselves to what we call a concentrated risk. Any economic, legal and market developments that can adversely impact your industry can also hurt your personal wealth.
The best way to protect yourself is by diversification. Investing in uncorrelated assets can decrease the overall risk of your portfolio. A typical diversified portfolio may include large-, mid-, small-cap, and international stocks, real estate, gold, government, and corporate fixed income.
Plan Your Exit
Whether you are planning to transfer your business to the next generation in your family or cash it in, this can have serious tax and legal consequences. Sometimes it pays off to speak to a pro.
Partnering with someone who understands your industry and your particular needs and circumstances, can offer substantial value to your business and build a robust plan to execute your future financial strategy.
The article was previously published in HVACR Business Magazine on March 1, 2017
Our hearts are with the people of Texas! I wish them to remain strong and resilient against the catastrophic damages of Hurricane Harvey. As someone who experienced Sandy, I can emphasize with their struggles and hope for a swift recovery.
I know that this newsletter has been long past due. However, as wise people say, it is better late than never.
It has been a wild year so far. Both Main and Wall Street kept us occupied in an electrifying thriller of election meddling scandals, health reforms, political battles, tax cuts, interest rate hikes and debt ceiling fights (that one still to unfold).
Between all that, the stock market is at an all-time high. S&P 500 is up 11.7% year-to-date. Dow Jones is up 12.8%, and NASDAQ is up to the whopping 24%. GDP growth went up by 3% in the second quarter of 2017. Unemployment is at a 10-year low. 4.3%.
Moreover, despite record levels, very few Americans are feeling the joy of the market gains and feel optimistic about the future. US families are steadily sitting on the sideline and continuing to pile cash. As of June 2007, the amount of money in cash and time deposits (M2) was 70.1% of the GDP, an upward trend that has continued since the credit crisis in 2008.
Given that the same ratio of M2 as % of GDP is 251% in Japan, 193% in China, 91% in Germany, and 89% in the UK, US is still on the low end of the developed world. However, this is a persistent trend that can reshape the US economy for the years to come.
The Winners
This year’s rally was all about mega-cap and tech stocks. Among the biggest winners so far this year we have Apple (AAPL), up 42%, Amazon (AMZN), 27%, NVIDIA (NVDA), 54%, Adobe, 48%, PayPal, 55%. Netflix, 36%, and Visa (V), 33%,
Probably the biggest story out there is Amazon and its quest to disrupt the way Americans buy things. Despite years of fluctuating earnings, Amazon is still getting full support from its shareholders who believe in its long-term strategy. The recent acquisition of Whole Foods and announcement of price drops, only shows that Amazon is here to stay, and all the key retail players from Costco, Wall-Mart, Target, and Walgreens to Kroger’s, Home Depot, Blue Apron and AutoZone will have to adjust to the new reality and learn how to compete with Amazon.
The Laggards
Costco, Walgreens, and Target are bleeding from the Amazon effect as they reported- 0.49%, -0.74% and -21% year-to-date respectively. Their investors are become increasingly unresponsive to earnings surprises and massively punishing to earnings disappointments.
Starbucks, -0.74%, is still reviving itself after the departure of its long-time CEO, Howard Shultz, and will have to discover new revenue channels and jump-start its growth.
The energy giants, Chevron, -5%, Exxon, -12%, and Occidental Petroleum, -14.5% are still suffering from the low oil prices. With OPEC maintaining current production levels and surge in renewable energy, there is no light at the end of the tunnel. If these low levels continue, I will expect to see a wave of mergers and acquisitions in the sector. Those with a higher risk and yield appetite may want to look at some of the companies as they are paying a juicy dividend – Chevron, 4%, Exxon, 4%, and Occidental Petroleum, 5.4%
AT&T, -7% and Verizon, -5%, are coming out of big acquisitions, which down-the-road can potentially create new revenue channels and diversify away from the otherwise slow growing telecom business. In the near-term, they will continue to struggle in their effort to impress their investors. Currently, both companies are paying above average dividends, 5.15%, and 4.76%, respectively.
And finally, Wells Fargo, -4%. The bank is suffering from the account opening scandals last year and the departure of its CEO. The stock has lagged its peers, which reported on average, 8% gains this year. While the long-term outlook remains positive, the short-term prospect remains uncertain.
Small Caps
Small Cap stocks as an asset class have not participated in this year’s market rally. Despite spectacular 2016 returns, small cap stocks have remained in the shadow of the uncertainty of the expected tax cuts and infrastructure program expansion. While I believe the Congress will come out with some tax reductions in the near term, the exact magnitude is still unclear. My long-term view of US small caps remains bullish with some near-term headwinds.
International Stocks
After several years of lagging behind US equity markets, international stocks are finally starting to catch up. The Eurozone reported 2% growth in GDP. MSCI EAFE is up 17.5% YTD, and MSCI Emerging Markets is up 28% YTD.
Despite the recent growth, International Developed and Emerging Market stocks remain cheap on a relative basis compared to US Stocks. I maintain a long-term bullish view on international and EM stocks with some caution in the short-term.
Even though European Central Bank has kept the interest rates unchanged, I believe that its quantitative easing program will slow down towards the end of 2017 and beginning of 2018. The German bund rates will gradually rise above the negative levels. The EUR / USD will breach and remain above 1.20, a level not seen since 2014.
Interest Rates
I am expecting maximum one or may be even zero additional rate hikes this year. Under Janet Yellen, the Fed will continue to make extremely cautious and well-measured steps in raising short term rates and slowing down of its Quantitative Easing program. Bear in mind that the Fed has not achieved its 2% inflation target and any sharp rate hikes can ruin the already fragile balance in the fixed income space.
Real Estate
After eight years of undisrupted growth, US Real Estate has finally shown some signs of slow down. While demand for Real Estate in the primary markets like California and New York is still high, I expect to see some cooling off and normalization of year-over-year price growth
US REITs have reported 3.5% total return year-to-date, which is roughly the equivalent of -0.5% in price return and 4% in dividend yield.
Some retail REITs will continue to struggle in the near-term due to store closures and pressure from online retailers. I encourage investors to maintain a diversified REIT portfolio with a focus on strong management, sustainability of dividends and long-term growth prospects.
Gold
After several years of underperformance, Gold is making a quiet comeback. Gold was up 8% in 2016 and 14% year-to-date. Increasing market and political uncertainty and fear of inflation are driving many investors to safe havens such as gold. Traditionally, as an asset class, Gold has a minimal correlation to equities and fixed income. As such, I support a 1% to 5% exposure to Gold in a broadly diversified portfolio as a way to reduce long-term risk.
About the author: Stoyan Panayotov, CFA is a fee-only investment advisor based in Walnut Creek, CA. His firm Babylon Wealth Management offers fiduciary investment management and financial planning services to individuals and families.
Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Nothing in this article should be construed as a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, to buy or sell any security. The content of this article is a sole opinion of the author and Babylon Wealth Management. The opinion and information provided are only valid at the time of publishing this article. Investing in these asset classes may not be appropriate for your investment portfolio. If you decide to invest in any of the instruments discussed in the posting, you have to consider your risk tolerance, investment objectives, asset allocation and overall financial situation. Different investors have different financial circumstances, and not all recommendations apply to everybody. Seek advice from your investment advisor before proceeding with any investment decisions. Various sources may provide different figures due to variations in methodology and timing,
